Red Sox vs. Rays prediction and odds for Monday, June 5 (Trust the Trends and Take the Over)

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello (66)
Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello (66) / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

After a postponement on Thursday, the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays will wrap up their four-game series at Tropicana Field up this afternoon before heading their separate ways. The Rays took a 6-2 win yesterday and lead the series 2-1. That win moved Tampa Bay to 42-19 on the year, the best record in baseball, and dropped the last place Red Sox to 30-29. 

As Boston tries to force a split in the final game they will send Brayan Bello to the mound against Shane McClanahan. Bello is 3-3 with a 3.89 ERA and McClanahan is 8-1 with a 2.07 ERA. 

Here are the odds for the finale of this AL East matchup. 

Red Sox vs. Rays odds, run line and total

Red Sox vs. Rays prediction and pick

The last two games in this series haven’t been particularly high scoring, but the Rays and the Red Sox are the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in terms of over/under record. The over is 35-23-3 in Tampa’s games and 34-23-2 in Boston’s. That is one of the reasons for a total set at nine in this one. The other reason is that despite what look like stellar numbers from these two pitchers, they might be due for a rough outing or two. 

McClanahan has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the start of last season, but we saw how he fell off some down the stretch last year. This season could be more of the same after another fantastic start to the season.

He has allowed just 16 runs in 69.2 innings with 87 strikeouts to 27 walks, but his FIP is 3.40, nearly a run higher than his ERA. That was the case for much of the first half last season, though his FIP wasn’t quite as high and we saw some regression come his way. 

The same goes for Bello who in eight starts has allowed just 19 runs, 17 of them earned, with 41 strikeouts in 39.1 innings. However, his FIP is 4.73 and in two career starts against the Rays he has an ERA of 10.13 and has allowed an OPS of 1.019 to Tampa Bay hitters. 

These are two of the better lineups in baseball and though it’s a strong pitching matchup I still like the over in the series finale. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change