Red Sox vs. Phillies prediction and odds for Friday, May 5 (Back offense even with big names on the mound)

Boston Red Sox center fielder Jarren Duran (16)
Boston Red Sox center fielder Jarren Duran (16) / Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

It looked like the Philadelphia Phillies had turned things around after a slow start by winning four-straight, but this week, they’ve lost four in a row to fall back under .500 and into fourth in the NL East. Against the Boston Red Sox, the Phillies will be happy to have their ace on the mound.

Zack Wheeler is starting for the Phillies in Game 1 of this three-game series against Chris Sale and the Red Sox. Wheeler is 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA and Sale is 2-2 with a 6.75 ERA. Let’s take a look at the odds for this one in Philadelphia. 

Red Sox vs. Phillies odds, run line and total

Red Sox vs. Phillies prediction and pick

It wasn’t just a three-game sweep that the Phillies suffered against the Dodgers out in LA, but it was a three-game disaster. The Phillies allowed 36 runs in three games, 13, 13, and 10. They’ve been absolutely beaten down and a lot of it has to do with their bullpen which has a 5.59 ERA on the year, 27th in the MLB. That’s why they have to be thrilled to hand the ball to Zack Wheeler. 

Wheeler has a 2.53 FIP which says there should be some positive regression coming his way with a 3.86 ERA. Wheeler has 41 strikeouts in 32.2 innings pitched this season. He’s been very good and reliable, but the way the Phillies are pitching as a staff it’s hard to do anything but bet the over. 

That’s especially the case against the Red Sox. Boston is second in OPS as a team over the past week and the over is 22-10 in their games this season. Jarren Duran is breaking out right now with a 1.278 OPS over the past week with five doubles and a home run. He’s adding some length to a lineup getting good production from Alex Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change