Red Sox vs. Orioles prediction and odds for Monday, April 24 (Hope for Chris Sale)

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale (41)
Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale (41) / Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Every team in the AL East has a winning record heading into tonight. That includes the last place, 12-11 Boston Red Sox who got a 12-5 win over the Brewers yesterday. It also includes the 14-7 Baltimore Orioles who are in second place in the division and have won six in a row. 

Tonight is Game 1 of a three-game series between the Sox and the O’s in Baltimore. The Orioles lead the season series 2-1 after winning the first series of the season up at Fenway Park. Chris Sale will make the start for Boston and Dean Kremer will go for Baltimore at Camden Yards tonight. Sale has a 1-1 record and 8.00 ERA in four starts and Kremer is 1-0 with a  6.16 ERA in four starts. 

Let’s get into the odds for tonight’s AL East matchup. 

Red Sox vs. Orioles odds, run line and total

Red Sox vs. Orioles prediction and pick

Chris Sale is not the pitcher that he once was, but one thing remains the same; the guy can miss bats. Sale has 30 strikeouts in 18.0 innings which is a 92nd percentile strikeout percentage. He also has a 91st percentile whiff percentage. His slider has a 42% whiff percentage, his four-seamer a 40%, and his changeup a 36%. His off-speed stuff is very effective, his slider has a .245 wOBA and his changeup a .161. However, his fastball is allowing an .833 slugging percentage and a .567 wOBA. His sinker is even worse with a .593 wOBA. 

Sale needs to find a way to be effective with his fastball, but as it stands right now he has an 8.00 ERA, but a 5.01 expected ERA and a 5.61 FIP. Both of those point to some positive regression. 

Baltimore is 10th in OPS against left-handed pitching, however it’s actually their lefties that are carrying them. Adley Rutschman has an .832 OPS against left-handers and Cedric Mullins has an .899. With some serious help from right-handed Ryan Mountcastle who has four homers and 12 RBI against lefties with a 1.096 OPS. 

While Baltimore does have some serious offensive threats against lefties, I don’t trust players with reverse splits to carry their offense when the right-handed hitters, other than Mountcastle, are struggling against lefties. I think Sale is figuring some things out and will have a strong start. Sale has allowed a batting average on balls in play of .381 so far this year and that’s just bad luck. I expect positive regression across the board and a Red Sox win. It looks rough for Sale right now, but there is hope. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change