Red Sox vs. Mariners prediction and odds for Tuesday, Aug. 1 (Target OVER on Tuesday)

Two offenses off of hot July's look to start August in similar fashion.
Jul 23, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers (11) hits a
Jul 23, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers (11) hits a / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Two teams jockeying for position in the American League Wild Card race continue an early week series on Tuesday.

The Boston Red Sox are losers of three straight after, most recently in the series opener to the Seattle Mariners, 6-2, but the team will hope the offense can be reignited against rookie Bryce Miller of Seattle.

The Mariners are a game behind the Red Sox, who are two-and-a-half outside of the final AL Wild Card spot. Can Boston even the series?

Here are the odds and our best bet:

Red Sox vs. Mariners odds, run line and total

Red Sox vs. Mariners prediction and pick

I'm going to bet over on Tuesday with an eye on two pitchers that have struggled with hard contact.

Brayan Bello has a promising future, but he has been prone to allowing home runs, allowing 1.32 home runs per nine innings and a high fly ball rate of nearly 70%. While he has a 3.66 ERA, it's supported by a 4.06 xERA, hinting that he's pitching a bit better than expectations.

It's worth noting that Bello will be facing a Mariners team that is ninth in home runs over the last 30 days, per and is seventh in OPS over the last 15 days.

However, the Red Sox elite offense should be up to the task against Miller. Boston is fresh off a month in which the team hit a big league high .281 and will have a strong showing against Miller, who also has some negative regression coming. The rookie has a 3.96 ERA with an xERA of 4.37.

The total is low, but I'm interested in trusting both offense to get over the number.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.