Red Sox vs. Guardians prediction and odds for Tuesday, June 6 (Back Paxton in Cleveland)

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher James Paxton (65)
Boston Red Sox starting pitcher James Paxton (65) / Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday, the Boston Red Sox fell to the Rays at Fenway Park and after taking Game 1 of that series have dropped three straight.

They are even at 30-30 as they head to Cleveland for a three-game series with the 27-32 Guardians. Boston is in last place in the AL East. 

For Game 1 the Red Sox will hand the ball to James Paxton for the fifth time this season. Paxton is 1-1 with a 4.26 ERA and will be opposed by Shane Bieber. The former Cy Young award winner is 4-3 with a 3.72 ERA heading into his 13th start this year. 

The Guardians are slight favorites in Cleveland with their ace on the mound, but the Red Sox could be a live underdog in this one. 

Red Sox vs. Guardians odds, run line and total

Red Sox vs. Guardians prediction and pick

The Cleveland Guardians have a lot of problems with the way that their roster is constructed, their lineup is lacking power, but more than that it is heavily left-handed. That means the Guardians struggle against lefties like Paxton and are 28th in OPS against lefties this season, .676.

They also have the fewest home runs off left-handed pitchers this season with just 10, two of those off the bat of Josh Bell who is away on paternity leave. 

Their struggles were even more pronounced earlier in the year, but getting Andres Gimenez more at-bats in left-on-left situations has helped their offense a lot because he now leads the team with a .954 OPS against lefties. Amed Rosario is day-to-day with a knee injury and he has an .808 OPS against lefties. 

 Shane Bieber has faced Boston once this season and he went 7.0 innings and allowed just two runs in a 5-2 Guardians win. However, Bieber struggled mightily last time out allowing seven runs on eight hits across four innings and his ERA ballooned from 3.04. His was up at 4.03 before that start FIP is still higher than his ERA at 4.14. 

I expect the Boston offense, especially Masataka Yoshida who is red hot the past week to find success against Bieber and for Paxton to shut down the Cleveland offense. I’ll take Boston to win on the road. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change