Thursday night's win over the Chicago Cubs allowed the Boston Red Sox to pull into a tie with the New York Yankees in the AL East.
The Red Sox are now 9-1 in their last 10 games as they prepare to make a second half push towards the postseason.
James Paxton (2.73 ERA) will get the start for Boston this afternoon. He'll face-off against Marcus Stroman (2.96 ERA) of the Cubs.
Let's dive into the odds for the game and then I'll give you my best bet.
Red Sox vs. Cubs odds, run line, and total
Red Sox vs. Cubs prediction and pick
Stroman may be having one of the better seasons in his career from an ERA perspective, but there are some other numbers that indicate some regression may be coming for the Cubs' arm. For example, his FIP (Field Independent Pitching) sits significantly higher than his ERA at 3.41.
He has also been walking batters at a rate of 3.3 walks per nine innings pitched, that's one full walk more per nine innings than he had last year.
I think we're going to see some regression from him as soon as today, with him having to face a Boston squad that ranks fifth in OPS (.795) over the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, James Paxton is poised for another strong start. He had a 1.74 ERA in five starts in June and I expect those numbers to continue after the All-Star break.
Let's back the Red Sox to get another win on the road tonight.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.