Red Sox vs. Braves prediction and odds for Wednesday, May 10 (Boston live for upset)

May 9, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Boston Red Sox right fielder Alex Verdugo (99) hits a single
May 9, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Boston Red Sox right fielder Alex Verdugo (99) hits a single / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Red Sox struggled in the first game of the series against the best team in the National League, the Atlanta Braves, losing 9-3.

However, Boston is still in a run of good form, fresh off an eight game winning streak before losing two in a row, and will look to take advantage of the Braves bullpen, who are starting an opener in Dylan Lee on Wednesday.

The Red Sox counter with Brayan Bello, who needs to show up against one of the best lineups in baseball in the Braves, but the oddsmakers aren't so confident, installing Boston as considerable underdogs.

How should we bet on this one? Let's first break down the odds:

Red Sox vs. Braves odds, run line and total

Red Sox vs. Braves prediction and pick

Lee will start this game for the Braves and go about an inning or so, and then will hand the ball to the bullpen, who will need to string together about eight innings of work against an elite lineup in the Red Sox. Boston checks in top five in wRC+, which generates the quality of run scoring chances a team has during the course of the game.

The Red Sox have serious pop in the lineup and I believe they can keep it rolling on Wednesday against the Braves, who are opening up the team to a ton of poor variance with a handful of different pitchers on the mound.

Now, the Red Sox will need a stronger start from Bello, who has an ERA of 5.71 in four starts, but I still buy his upside in his first full big league season after starting 11 games last season in the second half of the year. Bello has a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) that is more than a run-and-a-half lower than his ERA. This means that the Red Sox defense hasn't helped out the the pitcher. He has actually generated far better results than his numbers indicate.

Boston has been competitive in the toughest division in baseball, and I think that will translate in games outside of the AL East. I'll take a stab at the Red Sox at + money given the Braves are relying on more variables and Bello's underlying success.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.