The Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays continue a weekend series as each team fights for playoff positioning in the most competitive division in baseball this season, the AL East.
The Red Sox will hope that Kutter Crawford puts together an outing like he did a week-and-a-half ago, a comprehensive five inning shutout outing against the Twins, instead of the one that led to four earned runs in six innings of work against the White Sox in a losing effort.
Crawford will face left hander Yusei Kikuchi, who has solid metrics on the surface, but looking beneath the hood show that he can be in some trouble against a Red Sox lineup that is looking to get back on track.
Here's how I'm betting Red Sox vs. Blue Jays on Saturday:
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds, run line and total
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction and pick
Kikuchi is an ideal pitcher for the Red Sox to get the offense going into July. The left-hander has been getting crushed by hard contact since arriving in Toronto two seasons ago, allowing an average of more than two home runs per nine innings and has indicators that suggest he has gotten fairly lucky in the field.
This season, he is stranding nearly 90% of runners on base while posting an xERA that is nearly one run higher than his actual ERA (4.61 vs. 3.75). Kikuchi faces a Red Sox lineup that is hovering around league average in slugging percentage against southpaws and tied for second in doubles.
I believe the Boston offense should be up to the task on Saturday afternoon, and I expect the same for Crawford, who has been starting to grow into a role as starter, and his numbers indicate better times are ahead (Crawford has a 4.01 ERA that is supported by a 3.34 xERA).
These two teams are closer to equal, especially with Kikuchi on the mound, and I'll grab Boston at the underdog price.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.