Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction and odds for Friday, June 30

The Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays start a weekend series in Toronto with the Red Sox trying to get back on track after being swept by the Marlins.

Boston will start left hander James Paxton, who is finally healthy and looking like his elite self once again. However, Toronto counters with Jose Berrios, who has been on a tear since the beginning of May, posting a 3.12 ERA.

Here are the odds for the series opener:

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds, run line and total

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction and pick

Let's start with Paxton, who has dazzled in his first full season since 2019. He has a 3.19 ERA that is supported by a 3.36 xERA while striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings. He will face a Blue Jays team that has struggled against lefty pitching this season, 19th in OPS on the year.

However, Berrios should be up to the task. The righty isn't striking out as many batters this season, but is showcasing far better command and is limiting the long ball at a better rate (less than 11%). The Red Sox, amidst a poor stretch that includes losing seven of 10, is now 17th in OPS in the month of June.

Berrios has allowed three or fewer runs in nine of his last 11 starts and I expect another quality start on Friday night.

This may shape up to be a low scoring affair with these two on the mound, I'll take the under on a total that is about a run too high.