Red Sox vs. Astros prediction and odds for Thursday, August 24 (Fade Young Starters)

The Red Sox took the win last night, but Houston still leads the series 2-1 heading into the finale today. Boston is fourth in the AL East and four games back of the final Wild Card spot.
Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello (66)
Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello (66) / Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Last night, the Houston Astros had a chance to secure a series win over the Boston Red Sox, but they let them off the hook. The Astros scored four runs across the first three innings, but then Boston chipped away and eventually won it with a three-run homer from Adam Duvall in the top of the 10th inning. Now, the 67-60 Red Sox have a chance to leave Houston with a split in this four-game series. 

The loss dropped Houston to 72-56, still a game back of Texas in the AL West and the Astros will start JP France tonight as they look to pick up that game in the standings. France will be opposed by 9-7 Brayan Bello who comes in with a 3.70 ERA across 21 starts. France is 9-4 in 18 games with a 2.75 ERA.

There are two exciting young pitchers on the mound in this matchup, so let’s get into the odds. 

Red Sox vs. Astros odds, run line and total

Red Sox vs. Astros prediction and pick

With two pitchers that have low ERA’s and look like they’re developing into tentpoles of the future starting rotation for their franchise on the mound, you’d expect the total to be a bit lower. However, Vegas doesn’t really believe in either guy and the numbers say that you shouldn’t either. 

Both have a very low strikeout rate, Bello at 19.9% which is in the 26th percentile and France at 17.9% which is 15th percentile. France has a low whiff and low chase rate, while Bello’s are average at best. That’s just the start of the issues for them because both give up a lot of hard hit balls and extra base hits as well. Bello has allowed 17 homers with an xSLG of .412 and France, 12 homers and an xSLG of .426. 

The easiest way to look at it is that Bello’s FIP is 4.35 and his xERA is 4.09 and France’s FIP is 4.15 and his xERA is 4.39. These aren’t pitchers that you can trust despite a deceptively low ERA. So, with two good lineups and already three high scoring matchups in this series I’ll take the over and fade both starting pitchers. 

Regression is coming for both guys, but it only needs to hit one to cash the over and I’m confident it will. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change