Red Sox's playoff odds with a month to go: It isn't looking good for Boston

Even for the most optimistic of Red Sox fans, things are looking pretty grim for Boston's playoff chances.
Houston Astros v Boston Red Sox
Houston Astros v Boston Red Sox / Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/GettyImages

As it turns out, having a questionable, injury-riddled starting rotation for most of the season and failing to do anything of note at the trade deadline did not help the Boston Red Sox's chances of making the playoffs in 2023. Shocked....just absolutely shocked.

Coming out of the All-Star break, Boston's playoff odds were already pretty slim. They were fighting for relevance in a brutal American League East division and the AL wild card race looked like it was going to be a dogfight to the end with several AL East foes as well as whoever didn't win the AL West being formidable to overcome.

Sadly, after a recent stretch where they went 3-7, the chances of a Boston miracle have all but dissipated. The Red Sox have a month's worth of games to go and while they should be at least interesting to watch after the recent promotion of Ceddanne Rafaela, their chances of a postseason run hang by a thread.

Here's where the Red Sox's playoff odds stand with a month to go in the 2023 season

When looking at playoff projections, it is important to look at multiple sources simply because each engine calculates things differently. While most of them reach relatively the same conclusions, enough differences end up popping up to be noteworthy.

For example, according to Fangraphs' playoff odds for the 2023, the Boston Red Sox currently sport just a 4.6% chance of making the playoffs at all as of 8/31 with 0% chance of winning the AL East. Boston is currently 6.5 games out of a wild card spot, so that feels just about right. For those wondering at home, Boston's playoff offs were 30% on the day of the trade deadline.

Baseball-Reference's playoff odds are even more bearish on the Red Sox's chances as they give them a 1.3% of making the playoffs as of today which is a 23.6% drop from 30 days ago. The Orioles and Rays are almost mortal locks to make the postseason out of the division with Toronto having roughly a 50/50 shot.

There is still a lot of baseball left and it is still technically possible for Boston to sneak in, but the odds are stacked against them and they are going to have to start playing a lot better and soon if they want any shot of getting. On a brighter note, at least they have better odds than the Yankees.

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