Red Sox Playoff Odds: Boston slipping but still not dead as competitors fall off

Just as they did at the beginning of the campaign, the Boston Red Sox are back to playing consistently average baseball.

The Red Sox's record has been an exact .500 19 times this season. Once they reached 35-35 on June 14 against the New York Yankees, the Sox went on a tear, won eight of their next nine games and trended up before the All-Star break.

Now, with 22 games remaining in the season, Boston is at 70-70. Many of their American League opponents in playoff contention have faltered in recent weeks, including the Royals, Twins, Orioles and Yankees, but the Sox couldn't capitalize and fell all the way back to neutral.

Boston isn't dead yet, though. A disastrous road trip to Detroit and Queens has shrunk their playoff odds, but the Red Sox are still battling for a wild card spot, thanks to their hot streak before the All-Star break.

As of Sept. 5 the Red Sox are 5.5 games out of the third wild card spot, tied with the Mariners and Tigers, one of the AL's hottest teams in Aug. FanGraphs credits them with an 8.3% chance to make the playoffs, and sees the wild card as their only way in with the Orioles and Yankees ahead of them in the AL East standings. On Aug. 29, before Boston's series loss to the Tigers and sweep by the Mets, it had a 20.5% chance to make the postseason.

The Red Sox's rough showing on latest road trip has their playoff hopes hanging by a thread

Boston's 8.3% chance to make the postseason isn't promising, but neither is Detroit's 3.8% chance. Seattle's odds sit at 16.4% with just over 20 games remaining — the Mariners have first place in the AL West within reach, but the Astros have held onto their lead well.

The Red Sox have the most difficult second-half schedule in the league and many of their wild card foes have slates on the easier end of the spectrum. The Tigers boast the fifth-easiest second-half schedule, the Yankees' is the fourth-easiest, and the Twins and Royals rank near the middle of the pack, but on the easy side.

Boston overcoming its wild card opponents won't be easy, especially with the low quality of baseball it's played recently. But the Red Sox have a three-game series against the White Sox to hopefully reset momentum in their favor. After that, they play each team in the AL East, the Rays twice, and the Twins to finish out the regular season, hopefully on a high note and in a wild card spot.

The Red Sox must take advantage of their series against the league-worst White Sox and win while they can. They're running out of time to pull out of their latest funk.

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