Red Sox: 4 reasons why Adam Duvall is the most important player at the trade deadline
The Boston Red Sox may have the most important player of the trade deadline given what the trade market looks like.
With the All-Star break in the rearview mirror, the Boston Red Sox must now turn their attention to the trade deadline where they have some tough decisions to make. They are five games above .500 and just two games back in the wild card race, but they are also nine games back in the division and the other teams in the wild card race in the AL are likely to remain aggressive.
The best guess here is that the Red Sox will be doing a mix of buying and selling at the deadline. The Red Sox are in pretty desperate need of some pitching, but they are also one of the few teams that have some outfield depth to deal from at the deadline.
That lack of depth in the trade market at outfield actually has Boston in a pretty sweet position. It isn't hyperbole to say that while they won't be players in the busiest part of the trade market (pitching), the Red Sox may have the most important player at the trade deadline in Adam Duvall.
Here's why Adam Duvall is the most important at the trade deadline
Most teams, including most contenders, are going to be looking for pitching. That is a given. However, there are also a lot of pitchers (both starters and relievers) that are going to be available. The position player side of the market is much shallower especially when it comes to impact players and that makes Adam Duvall uniquely positioned as a guy that will be in high demand.
Lets take a look at why Adam Duvall may be the most important player at the trade deadline not just to the Red Sox, but to the market as a whole.
Adam Duvall's contract makes him highly desirable as a trade target
Lets get the easy one out of the way: teams buying on the trade market this time of year love guys whose contracts are expiring at the end of the season. Such players are cheaper to acquire in terms of prospects and keep teams from having to be saddled with long-term financial commitments that they could regret down the line.
Duvall's contract is firmly in that camp as he signed a one year, $7 million deal with Boston before the 2023 season. Any contending team that is looking for an outfield bat wouldn't have their future payroll plans upended to acquire him and finding another $3-3.5 million in 2023 dollars at the deadline isn't particularly difficult for most squads.
When you compare Duvall's deal with the other guys on the outfield market, he holds some clear advantages. Most of the other guys that could be considered rentals either aren't going to be available (Conforto, Bellinger) or haven't been very good. There are some interesting bats with some team control that may be available especially with the Cardinals deciding to sell, but they all have some warts and will be significantly more expensive to trade for given that team control.
For a lot of contenders, they aren't looking for a long-term fix to a roster problem at the trade deadline as free agency will give them more/better options. This is about making it through the end of the season and Duvall is one of those bats that can give a lineup a boost without mortgaging a team's future.
Duvall is one of very few outfielders at the deadline with real offensive value
When you look at the outfielders that are likely to be moved at the deadline. Duvall stands out as a guy that can really provide some offense. He is basically a mortal lock each year to have a two week stretch where he looks like Babe Ruth and he is a consistent power threat who will also draw some walks. His hit tool can be a bit infuriating at times, but he is still is one of the top bats on the market regardless of his contract status.
When you look elsewhere, this becomes more clear. Cody Bellinger is having a really nice season with the Cubs, but we don't have a clear sense that the Cubs are going to sell at all given how bad the NL Central is and Bellinger is coming off back-to-back seasons where he struggled to hit .200. Bellinger is also owed significantly than Duvall (he is making $12 million this year plus another $5.5 million at minimum if his 2024 mutual option gets declined).
Teoscar Hernandez is a similar player to Duvall in a lot of ways, but the Mariners look more likely to buy than sell at this point and Hernandez is also owed twice as much money in 2023 that is owed to Duvall the rest of the way. Guys like Starling Marte, Dylan Carlson, Tyler O'Neill, and Jurickson Profar all have real present-day questions regarding their ability to contribute at the plate.
For a market that is bereft in outfield bats, Duvall's power combined with his contract may make him the most sought after outfield bat at the trade deadline. That is good news for the Red Sox as he could help shore up some of Boston's long-term depth.
A lot of contenders are in need of an outfielder who can hit
There are two sides to any trade market: supply and demand. We have already discussed why the supply of outfielders that both 1) contending teams would want and 2) are actually going to be available at the deadline is decidedly low. The number shrinks even more if you are looking solely for 2023 rentals. However, it certainly helps that the demand amongst contending teams for outfielders is also particularly high this year.
The Houston Astros are in a pretty decent spot in their division and while they are prioritizing adding a starting pitcher at the deadline, they are in real need of another bat in the outfield that won't break the bank. The Phillies seem to have a lot of DHs on their roster and a guy like Duvall who hits for power and isn't embarrassing on the defensive end would have a lot of value to them.
The list doesn't end there as the Mariners, Guardians, Yankees, Twins, Marlins, and Brewers are all teams that are in contention that could use an outfield bat. Sure, a trade to the Yankees isn't going to happen because they don't deserve anything nice, but that is still a very healthy demand for a guy like Duvall even without the Yankees in the mix.
So Boston has a guy that is on a cheap one year deal that is an offensive producer in a market that is low on outfield bats and high in teams that need them. That is a pretty sweet position to be in if you are the Red Sox.
Duvall's defensive versatility gives contenders more options
We have talked a lot about Duvall's bat and rightly so as that is going to be what drives the demand for his services the most. However, the fact that he can play all three outfield positions pretty well is an added bonus that could entice more teams to pull the trigger especially analytics-forward teams that value defense highly.
We will use the Brewers as an example here. Milwaukee's offense is truly bad with a team wRC+ as of today of 89. However, the only reason other than dumb luck that they are in contention at all is because they have been the best defensive team ($) in the league this season. Adding Duvall would, in theory, boost the offense while also not giving up much if anything on the defensive end.
A team like the Mariners who could use some outfield help and who could also use a defensive upgrade in the outfield is likely to value Duvall highly. The Astros are famously analytics driven and could see Duvall as exactly the kind of short-term move that would help them on both sides of the ball.
The trade deadline is mostly about patching holes on the roster for the rest of the season. Teams in need of centerfielder could play Duvall out there even if it isn't his ideal position. Need a guy for either corner spot? Duvall can do that, too. This isn't a guy that you have to play in LF because all he can do is hit. Duvall's defensive versatility is a huge selling point that will appeal to a much wider range of teams.
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