Red Sox: 2 starting pitchers Boston needs to target on the trade market, 1 to avoid
The Boston Red Sox have some really tough decisions coming up here soon when it comes to the trade deadline. They are above .500 which is nice enough and the roster does have some things going for it, but they are still 13 games back in the brutal AL East and are three games back of a wild card spot.
On the one hand, there is an argument that Boston should consider selling at the deadline as they have a variety of guys like Adam Duvall, Chris Martin, Kenley Jansen, and (hopefully) Chris Sale as veterans who could be in demand as well as young guys like Tristan Casas could be available if teams are willing to pony up.
The flip side of this, though, is that Boston isn't a bad team right now and could realistically become contenders for a playoff spot if they get their issues in their rotation sorted out. Sure, the AL East title is probably out of reach at this point with how the Rays are playing, but snagging a wild card spot seems to be possible if things break their way and they go get some help at starting pitcher.
We'll assume for the moment that Boston does decide to be buyers at the trade deadline and in that scenario, they really need to make sure they make moves for the right pitcher(s). Here is a look at a couple arms the Red Sox should target at the trade deadline and one that they should avoid like the plague.
The Red Sox should target Eduardo Rodriguez at the trade deadline
There are going to be a number of pretty big name starting pitchers potentially available at the trade deadline this year with guys like Shane Bieber, Corbin Burnes, and Jack Flaherty already having their names batted around. However, one guy that absolutely needs to be in the Red Sox's sights is Eduardo Rodriguez from the Tigers.
Before he went down with an injury to his finger, Rodriguez was among the better pitchers in all of baseball in the first half with a 2.13 ERA in 11 starts. Assuming he can return from the injured list before the trade deadline, he is the kind of impact arm that could immediately boost Boston's chances every single time he takes the mound.
There are a couple of issues here, though. One, the Tigers may not actually sell at the trade deadline even though Rodriguez could easily opt out of his deal after the 2023 season. The AL Central is terrible so if the Tigers can get healthy in time, they could find themselves in the mix in the division race.
Another issue with Eduardo is simply cost. While Rodriguez's opt out clause and injury will suppress his value a bit, teams are already lining up to try and make a move for him. If it requires a hefty prospect package for Rodriguez as a potential rental, it may not be worth it especially if he is shaky coming back from injury.
The Red Sox should avoid Lance Lynn at the trade deadline
Look, Lance Lynn has been a very good pitcher for a long time. The guy put up a 4.2 fWAR season in 2021 and was perennially underrated for the better part of a decade for his work with the Cardinals, Rangers, and White Sox. It is very tempting to try and bet on a guy with his level of experience especially since he was pretty good, if unexciting, just last season.
However, Father Time is undefeated and it does seem pretty clear that Lynn is trending in the wrong direction in a number of ways. A cursory look at Lynn's Statcast profile reveals that he still missing bats at a decent rate, but is also giving up hard contact at a greater and greater clip and the expected batting stats against him are climbing at an even more alarming pace.
Moreover, even when you ignore the advanced metrics and go strictly to the bottom line, the results haven't been good in 2023. He has a 6.40 ERA in 16 starts this year and is walking the most batters he has in five seasons. Boston needs some certainty of production with any move they make at starting pitcher and Lynn just isn't that guy.
The Red Sox should target Paul Blackburn at the trade deadline
It wouldn't be a trade deadline target list without at least looking at who the Oakland Athletics may have available given that they seem willing to trade their own mothers if it will bring their payroll down a smidge. Paul Blackburn is an interesting case here as he began the season on the injured list with a torn fingernail, but has since returned and posted a 4.21 ERA in five starts so far.
On the surface, a guy with a 4.21 ERA doesn't seem all that exciting, but a closer look is far more optimistic. His FIP currently sits at a very nice 3.00 and his peripheral stats like average exit velocity, chase rate, hard hit percentage, and barrel percentage are all very good to elite. While he isn't a flamethrower, he throws a ton of strikes and if he weren't on an awful team, his numbers would likely be a lot better.
Another nice thing about Blackburn is that he would come with some extra team control as he isn't set to become a free agent until after the 2025 season. Those extra years of control are going to jack up the price a bit, but this is an Oakland team that has shown a willingness to wheel and deal. Boston has the spare prospects to get this sort of deal done and assuming the actual package isn't too brutal, Boston should jump at the chance to grab Blackburn.
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