The MLB Draft is on July 14, and the Boston Red Sox add to their already loaded farm system with the No. 12 overall pick.
This will be the first pick under the Craig Breslow regime, and it will be interesting to see if the Red Sox will continue to pick position players in the first round. Breslow’s working hard to revamp Boston's pitching program, as well as the pitching philosophy throughout the organization. It stands to reason that they will make a pitcher their first-round pick for the first time since Tanner Houck in 2017.
Dave Dombrowski and Chaim Bloom have selected marquee players in the last five drafts, and their chosen first-rounders all have good upside. Evaluating the recent first-round picks takes a lot of projection for how they will perform with Boston during their MLB career.
While some have dealt with injuries and others won't be moving to the Show soon, let’s try and rate how the Red Sox did with those picks.
Rating the Red Sox’s last 5 first round MLB Draft picks
Triston Casas (2018, Pick No. 26). Rating: 8.8/10
Triston Casas proved to be an incredibly impactful draft pick at the bottom of the first round, far surpassing many expectations. The third baseman turned first baseman is a master craftsman at the plate. Casas’ mentality and approach exceed many players’ understanding of the game, and his tenacity and love for the game are clear during his copious in-game and off-field interviews.
Casas has long been atop many MiLB and MLB lists, once ranking as Boston’s No. 1 prospect and a top 100 MLB Network player before the 2024 season. Casas is an intimidating presence at the plate and has an incredibly smooth left-handed swing. During the 2nd half of the 2023 season, Casas posted a .317/.417/.617/1.034 slash line.
Casas needs to prove he can stay on the field. In a recent appearance on the “Off The Pike” podcast with Brian Barrett, Julian McWilliams of The Boston Globe illuminated that while Casas will play through soreness and various levels pain, he will not return to the field from injury until he can make every move possible at the plate.
Casas is a mechanical savant and will not play at a diminished version of himself, which stands to reason. However, some frustration from fans is understandable given how his rib injury has persisted much longer than it was originally reported. Boston fans want Casas on the field while the team is hot, even if he’s not at his version of 100%. Casas might be in his head a little too much, but that is how he got himself to where he is professionally.
While an 8.8/10 rating seems a touch low for Casas given where the Red Sox got him, his injury history and subpar defense knock his value down a bit.
Nick Yorke (2020, Pick No. 17). Rating: 7.3/10
Note: the Red Sox had no first-round selection in 2019.
MLB ranks Nick Yorke as Boston’s No. 6 prospect, and FanGraphs has him at No. 13. Yorke’s best tool is his bat-to-ball skills, but many say it’s not as projectable to the Major League level as it would seem due to his inability to catch up to velocity. It’s fair to say that Yorke is good, but not great given his solid hit tool and lack of true power.
Like Casas, Yorke’s downfall as a player is due to injuries and defensive struggles. Yorke has suffered from turf toe, back stiffness, and wrist soreness during his career and has not proven to be a reliable defensive second baseman. His defensive woes have caused him to be tried out in the outfield at times.
Value wise, Yorke was a great selection. However, Yorke’s standing in the Red Sox farm system is slipping some, and he has been thrown into many trade discussions. If the Red Sox are looking to buy at the trade deadline, it would not be surprising if Yorke is moved.
Many expected Yorke to rise faster through the ranks, despite being selected out of high school during the COVID-19 shutdown season. He is hitting well at Worcester this season, but he is seemingly blocked by players that he should beat out on paper as a former first rounder.
Despite being only 22, it's a little dismaying that Yorke has not been able to grab a Major League roster spot over players like Enmanuel Valdez, Jamie Westbrook, David Hamilton, Romy González, or even Vaughn Grissom, who is just one year older than Yorke.
Marcelo Mayer (2021, Pick No. 4). Rating: 9.7/10
This was an easy pick. The Pirates selected Henry Davis first overall in 2021 under slot value, and then two pitchers came off the board next, which left Marcelo Mayer for the Red Sox. Many viewed Mayer as the best player in the draft, and he fell right into Boston’s lap.
Mayer is a consensus top prospect in the Red Sox's pipeline, and his numbers with Double-A Portland are top-notch. His strikeout percentage is the lowest it’s been throughout his entire Red Sox tenure. He’s healthy, plays nearly every day, and he’s much leaner than years past without compromising his in-game power.
It remains to be seen whether the 21-year-old Mayer will be promoted to the Red Sox this season, but many other players from the 2021 draft class have debuted already. Many big-league shortstops debuted when they were his age.
David Hamilton has taken the reins as the left-handed hitting shortstop, but if he tails off, it could open the door for Mayer’s debut. The only way this could have been a 10/10 pick is if he debuted already and started to establish himself as the top-tier player we all think he will be.
Mikey Romero (2022, Pick No. 24). Rating: 6.5/10
Mikey Romero was an under-slot, late first-round pick in 2022. His career has consisted of back issues plaguing his on-field availability and performance. The Red Sox aggressively moved Romero from the Florida Complex League to High-A this season, which is a good sign. They clearly want to challenge Romero, and it’s working given his below-average offensive stats in Greenville. Romero projects as a second baseman given his lack of range and questionable arm strength.
Like Yorke, Romero was a late-first-rounder who could be a trade candidate this year if Breslow needs to cash some chips in. Unlike Yorke, Romero hasn’t burst onto the scene and established himself as a player for Sox fans to get overly excited about.
Romero is raw and there’ll be plenty of opportunities for him to rise through the prospect rankings. The issue with the selection by Bloom is the players he was selected before might far surpass his value. Spencer Jones was the pick after Romero, and he’s currently the Yankees' No. 2 prospect behind Jasson Domínguez. That could age very poorly.
Honestly, the best part of the Romero selection was going under-slot, which helped facilitate the Roman Anthony selection in the second compensatory round.
Kyle Teel (2023, Pick No. 14). Rating: 9.8/10
The Red Sox both drafted for talent and need with Teel, and all signs point to him becoming a high-impact player in Boston. Have Red Sox fans thought about a Wong/Teel tandem as early as next season? Yes, absolutely.
Many pundits were very high on Teel pre-draft, and his fall to the Red Sox at pick No. 14 took everybody by surprise. He has elite tools already, and they’re only going to get more polished. It’s hard to knock Teel, many say he’s as well-rounded as they come for a catcher. He has great Double-A results and upside. He’s going to learn from Jason Varitek. Incredible pick.
Given how the Red Sox got him at No. 14 and he’s neck-and-neck with Anthony and Mayer on the prospect rankings, this was a near-perfect pick.