Ranking the 5 best starting pitchers the Red Sox should target at the trade deadline
The No. 1 need for this Boston Red Sox team is starting pitching. Any of these five arms would make this team much better.
The Boston Red Sox just took two of three against the New York Mets to improve to 53-47 on the season. They're tied for last with the Yankees in the all-too-brutal AL East, but they're just two games back of the third Wild Card spot.
While trailing the pack isn't as fun as leading it, the Red Sox are right in the thick of postseason contention and as of this moment, are clear buyers at the trade deadline. They won't be buying for Shohei Ohtani, but will make a legitimate effort to get back to the postseason.
Chaim Bloom CBO #RedSox just shared with us they are looking for a starting pitcher at the trade deadline. The Red Sox could also use a LHH middle infielder to best balance their roster.
— Jim Bowden⚾️🏈 (@JimBowdenGM) July 23, 2023
Chaim Bloom said what we all knew to reporters. The Red Sox will be looking to add a starting pitcher at the trade deadline. Brayan Bello and James Paxton have both been great, and the Red Sox hope to get some of their injured starters back sooner than later, but the rotation has been this team's achillies heel all season long. For them to play meaningful October baseball, the rotation had to be addressed.
The Red Sox should have plenty of options in terms of starting pitchers they should acquire at the deadline, but five in particular stick out. Let's rank them from worst to best.
5) Red Sox trade deadline target: White Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito
Not many pitchers have had more ups and downs in the majors than Lucas Giolito. Most years it feels like he's either great or horrible with no in-between. In 2018 his 6.08 ERA was the highest among all qualifiers, yet he followed that up with an outstanding 2019 season which saw him finish sixth in the AL Cy Young balloting.
Giolito had three straight top-11 finishes in the AL Cy Young balloting before a random awful year in 2022 when he had an ERA that approached 5.00. His 2023 season has been much better, and Giolito has made himself one of the prime trade candidates in the game.
The White Sox have been one of the more disappointing teams in the majors this season as they're 41-60 on the year. They're obvious sellers, and with Giolito hitting free agency at the end of the season, he's an obvious trade candidate.
The 29-year-old has a 3.79 ERA in 21 starts and 121 innings pitched this season. His 4.46 FIP indicates regression is coming, but a lot of that can be attributed to a recent rough outing against the Mets. Giolito gave up eight runs thanks to five walks (season high) and three home runs (also season high). He had a 4.21 FIP entering that start.
The veteran right-hander would instantly become the ace of this Red Sox staff, and considering his contract status, wouldn't break the bank prospect-wise to acquire.
4) Red Sox trade deadline target: Cubs pitcher Marcus Stroman
Marcus Stroman is a pitcher Red Sox fans should be very familiar with from his days with the Blue Jays. Stroman spent six years with the Jays and was great. He's every bit as good now as he was then, if not better.
This season he has a 3.09 ERA in 21 starts and 122.1 innings of work. He's struggled a bit of late, but has still been one of the better pitchers in the National League this season.
He doesn't strikeout many and his walk rate has shot up this season from 6.3% last season and 6.9% in his career to 9.2% this season, but Stroman's ability to generate ground balls is why he's so good. Often after walking a batter he'll just get the next one to ground into a double play. He's allowed just seven home runs this season, and his 0.5 HR/9 leads the league.
The reason I have Stroman only fourth on this list is because of who he is as a pitcher and the team around him. Stroman is a big ground ball guy which would force the Red Sox, a team with poor infield defense, to make plays behind him.
The Red Sox rank dead last by a wide margin in outs above average at -43. The next closest team is the Athletics who are -13. Getting Trevor Story back could help, but who knows how good his throwing will be coming off Tommy John Surgery.
Stroman is a great pitcher that the Red Sox should be targeting, but I'm not sure how great of a fit he is pitching in front of a lousy Red Sox defense.
3) Red Sox trade deadline target: Cardinals pitcher Jordan Montgomery
Another pitcher Red Sox fans should be familiar with from his days in the AL East is Jordan Montgomery. The southpaw spent six years with the Yankees before being traded at the deadline last season in a surprising move.
Since becoming a Cardinal, the reliable Montgomery has been at his best. He was always a guy the Yankees could rely on to pitch to a sub-4.00 ERA and give them 150-160 innings. In his 31 starts as a Cardinal he's elevated his game to another level.
Montgomery had a 3.11 ERA in 11 starts with St. Louis last season, and has a 3.37 ERA in 20 starts and 115 innings of work this season for them. Quality pitching has been hard to come by for the Cards this season, but Montgomery has been the guy to give that to them every fifth day.
He doesn't have the best stuff in the world, but he's a guy who throws strikes, doesn't walk anybody, and doesn't give up home runs.
Montgomery doesn't feel like the ace Boston needs, but he's been as reliable of a pitcher as there is in the majors this season. He's allowed more than three runs in an outing just four times and has failed to complete six innings just seven times. The majority of the time he's there giving you six innings and allowing three runs or fewer. That's him giving your team the chance to win virtually every time out which is really all you can ask for.
Like the others, Montgomery is a free agent at season's end, so he won't require too much in a deal. The Cardinals will be moving him, I'd love for Chaim Bloom to make sure Boston is the destination.
2) Red Sox trade deadline target: Tigers pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez
The last two players are recognizable for Red Sox fans because they played in the division for years, but what about a former Red Sox player? Eduardo Rodriguez played six years in Boston and had some very memorable moments for the team.
He signed a five-year deal with the Tigers worth $77 million prior to the 2022 season and has had a strange tenure with the Tigers. The 2022 season was a lost one for both the team and the player as Rodriguez made just 17 starts, missing a substantial amount of time for personal reasons.
He's flipped the switch this season, posting a 2.69 ERA in 14 starts and 83.2 innings pitched. He missed over a month with injury, but has been dominant when on the bump for Detroit. He's allowed three earned runs or fewer in all but two of his starts. Boston could really use that kind of consistency.
Of all of the pitchers on this list, E-Rod is the least likely to be available. The Tigers, while being eight games under .500, are only 6.5 games out of first place in the abysmal AL Central so it's unclear whether Detroit will actually sell. If they do, you have to imagine Rodriguez will be available. He does have three years left on his deal at a $49 million total figure, but he has an opt-out at the end of this season which he will surely exercise the way things are going.
We know Rodriguez can pitch in Boston, and Chaim Bloom has the chance to right the wrong he made by letting him walk, to begin with. It makes too much sense.
1) Red Sox trade deadline target: Padres pitcher Blake Snell
Blake Snell is yet another former AL East member. He spent five seasons with the Rays, winning a Cy Young award and pitching in a ton of meaningful playoff games. He was shockingly traded to San Diego right after the Rays won the Pennant, and while things haven't gone super smoothly in his entire tenure there, he's been unbelievable in 2023.
If the season ended today, there's a good chance Snell is the NL Cy Young Award winner. He's posted a 2.67 ERA in 20 starts and 108 innings of work. He leads the league in walks, but also leads the league in ERA. A very rare combination. He's done this by limiting opponents to a .203 batting average and posting a sparkling 31.6% K-rate.
Snell's ERA sat at 5.04 through his first ten starts of the season, but in his last ten he has a 0.62 ERA. Yes, you read that right. He's allowed just four runs in 56 innings during this dominant stretch with 89 strikeouts. In his first ten starts, Snell had three outings in which he allowed four runs or more. He's gone ten starts allowing four runs total. Just absurd.
The Padres find themselves without nothing more than a puncher's chance at a postseason spot so it's very possible they sell high on Blake Snell while they still can.
The southpaw is a free agent at the end of the year so even with how well he's pitched Boston wouldn't have to give up someone like Marcelo Mayer to get him, and he's showing that he can still anchor a rotation. He has a 3.10 ERA in five starts at Fenway in his career, and has a 3.33 ERA in 12 postseason appearances (10 starts). The fit is perfect, and with how he's pitching now, the sky feels like it's the limit.