Rangers vs. Red Sox prediction and odds for Tuesday, July 4 (Value on total)

Our expert betting breakdown of the over/under on the Fourth of July.
Jul 2, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers (11) hits a single
Jul 2, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers (11) hits a single / Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers start a mid-week series on Independence Day in Boston.

Boston responded to being on the wrong end of a sweep by taking all three games from the Blue Jays on the road and will try to keep it rolling against the Rangers, who are holding steady in first place in the AL West.

I'm eyeing the total in this game, here's how I see it:

Rangers vs. Red Sox odds, run line and total

Rangers vs. Red Sox prediction and pick

Texas comes in as an elite offense across the board, third in wRC+ and best in batting average. The lineup is full of explosive bats that should make life difficult for Monday's starter Brennan Bernardino, who will be making his first start of the year after 23 appearances out of the bullpen.

Bernardino has strong numbers on the surface with a 2.45 ERA, but it's supported by a 4.09 xERA. I question the sample size that the 31-year-old has seen this season with only 25.1 innings and will likely only pitch an inning or two before passing the ball to a league average pen.

Against an offense like the Rangers, this seems like a dangerous proposition.

However, the Red Sox should be up to the task against Dane Dunning, who also has some concerning underlying metrics. Dunning has a 2.69 ERA which is supported by a 4.60 xERA. He is striking out the fewest batters of his career, only five per nine innings, but is allowing an incredibly low amount of home runs, posting a 6% home run to fly ball rate.

This is a Red Sox lineup that is top 10 in wRC+ and slugging percentage and can be ripe for a strong day at the plate.

I'm siding with the over on Tuesday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.