The Boston Red Sox returned from Canada on a three-game win streak, but failed to extend it at Fenway Park. The Rangers beat the Boston Red Sox 6-2 to kick off a three-game series. The Rangers are first in the AL West at 51-35 and Boston is last in the East at 43-43.
The Red Sox swept the Blue Jays to get over .500, but now are in danger of slipping back under. Brayan Bello is the man tasked with navigating the Rangers lineup and getting Boston that win. Bello is 5-5 with a 3.08 ERA. He will be opposed by 6-4 Jon Gray who has a 3.21 ERA.
Let’s take a look at the odds for Texas and Boston at Fenway Park.
Rangers vs. Red Sox odds, run line and total
Rangers vs. Red Sox prediction and pick
The Red Sox have been a streaky team all season long, especially at the plate. They are on a down swing right now; last in the league in runs scored over the past 15 days with just 34 in 12 games. Over the past week, Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran have been carrying them offensively with 10 hits in each and Duran has an OPS of 1.875 and will be needed against an elite offense in the Rangers.
Even with the Red Sox offense struggling of late, I'm eyeing the over, due to the negative indicators that I see with both starting pitchers.
Jon Gray has been very good for Texas, but his FIP is 4.40 and his xERA is 4.22. Both are significantly higher than his ERA and point to some serious regression in his next few starts. Gray is average in walk rate and well below with his strikeout rate of 21.1%.
Brayan Bello is in a similar boat with his 3.73 FIP which is much higher than his 3.08 ERA. Bello has only allowed three total runs in his last three starts and hasn’t had a bad outing since his first start of the year. Bello has been fantastic and might just be an ace for Boston, but he also has a poor strikeout rate and is due for some negative regression against a loaded Texas lineup.
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