Price for Red Sox to extend Alex Verdugo is Verdu-going up
After a challenge from the team last season, Alex Verdugo arrived at Boston Red Sox spring training leaner and in better shape with an invigorated energy to prove himself. This strong offseason of work has translated on the field as Verdugo is in the midst of a stellar performance this season. The right fielder has expressed an interest to remain in Boston after his contract ends after the 2024 season and his price tag seems to go up every day.
Verdugo joined the Boston Red Sox in 2020 with the "distinction" of being one of the players traded for generational talent Mookie Betts. Fortunately for Verdugo, Red Sox fans are quick to move on and have completely forgotten about this trade! All kidding aside, Verdugo has had to live with the pressure of being part of the Betts deal throughout his career. He did not let this pressure faze him and quickly endeared himself to Red Sox fans with his passion, character, and grillz.
However, his performance on the field has been more mixed. Verdugo batted .308 with 6 home runs and .844 OPS in the Covid-19 shortened 2020 season. He followed this up by batting .289 in 2021 with 13 home runs and .777 OPS. After a solid first two seasons with the Red Sox, Verdugo failed to take the next step last season when he batted .280 with 11 home runs and .732 OPS.
This prompted manager Alex Cora to identify Verdugo as the player he felt needed to take the most significant leap for the 2023 season telling Chris Cotillo of MassLive, “We’re going to push him hard this off-season to get back to playing faster, to playing quicker". Cora felt Verdugo was hitting for average but needed to work on his defense and baserunning skills. The question was how Verdugo would respond to this challenge.
Alex Verdugo has delivered for Red Sox this season
Verdugo accepted his manager's challenge and arrived at spring training noticeably trimmer and in better shape. Cora was quick to notice the difference telling reporters, "He changed a few things: his routines, his nutrition, all that. He can feel it now, swing-wise. He’s moving well”.
Verdugo's offseason work has translated onto the field as well. He has delivered his best season to date for the Red Sox. Entering the rubber match with the Seattle Mariners on Wednesday night, Verdugo is batting .303 with .869 OPS and five home runs. He has spent the majority of the season leading off and has regularly sparked the lineup. Verdugo seems more agile covering the spacious right field of Fenway Park as well. He is second on the team with bWAR of 1.8.
Beyond these traditional statistics, Verdugo has shown that the new LED lights of Fenway Park are not too bright for him. He has a flair for the dramatics and producing during the game's biggest moments. He has delivered three walk-off wins for the Red Sox this season giving him a total of eight for his career. Red Sox fans can half-jokingly jab Yankees fans that Verdugo has now surpassed Derek Jeter's career total.
In addition to his on-the-field performance, Verdugo has also taken a leadership role with this team. With the team on a rough patch losing four straight games, Rob Bradford of WEEI reported that Verdugo called a players-only meeting before Tuesday night's game against the Seattle Mariners. Verdugo told Bradford that one of the messages of the meeting was, "Win or lose, boys, let’s go out and bring the energy". Verdugo heeded his own advice during his first at-bat by hustling to first and reaching on a bobble from the Mariners infielder, Kolten Wong. Verdugo would later score after a triple from Masataka Yoshida.
Verdugo's teammates noticed his leadership. Rob Refnsyder told Rob Bradford of WEEI, “I just know from my perspective, it’s cool to see Alex taking on that leadership role. I think he has done a great job, especially leading off. He busted his ass going down to first base and set the tone really early. It was great. From my perspective, it was great seeing Verdugo take that next step as a leader”.
Deal or no deal for Red Sox?
On the first day of spring training, Verdugo informally approached ownership and expressed a desire to remain in Boston after his contract ends. Verdugo is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2024 season. The Red Sox could offer a long-term extension now to buy out a season and a half of pre-free agency arbitration time. An earlier deal could provide Verdugo financial security while lowering the overall contract price for the team. So what type of contract might it take to for the Red Sox to extend Verdugo?
The Bryan Reynolds extension with the Pittsburgh Pirates might be a starting point for negotiations. The outfielder signed an 8-year contract $106.75 million extension last month. Like Verdugo, Reynolds is a talented outfielder who was slated to hit free agency in more than a year. However, both Verdugo and the Red Sox will note that the comparison between the players is not entirely apples to apples.
For example, Verdugo might argue that he is a year younger and has less time until free agency than Reynolds. The Pirates were buying out two future seasons of arbitration time before free agency while Verdugo has only one more season after this one before free agency.
The Red Sox might counter that Verdugo has never had the peak single season of production of Reynolds. For example, in his best season in 2021, Reynolds batted .302 with .912 OPS and 24 home runs. Reynolds accumulated 5.9 bWAR that season while playing in the All-Star Game. Though Verdugo is on pace to eclipse those numbers this season, he has not yet achieved those heights during his career. Before this season, Verdugo averaged about 2 bWAR per season.
Given this uncertainty, the Red Sox may offer Verdugo an extension with a lower number of years and total contract dollars. This would lessen the team's risk especially if this season’s performance is an outlier. However, Verdugo is on pace to achieve Reynolds' 2021 numbers this season. If he does, he will have an argument to be paid like or better than Reynolds. Every day he continues to produce this season, Verdugo is making his case for a larger contract.
Verdugo’s performance off and on the field and propensity to thrive in the big moment might make him a player the Red Sox can build around long-term. Time will tell if the Boston Red Sox view him this highly and if the player and team will attempt to reach a contract extension before he hits free agency after the 2024 season. With his performance this season, his price tag seems to be going up every game.