Predicting where each Red Sox free agent will sign in 2024
The Red Sox have several free agents that are going to be sought after this offseason.
The Boston Red Sox are about to embark on an offseason that is going to set the tone for years to come. They have a new chief baseball officer in Craig Breslow that certainly seems like he wants to be aggressive, but who also is going to need time to get up to speed and who actually knows if ownership is actually going to give him enough resources to make some noise with.
Red Sox free agent predictions for this offseason
Part of the problem is that Boston is set to lose some fairly important players to free agency this year on both sides of the ball. While it isn't a lock that all of these guys will leave Boston (more on that in a bit), it is a fair guess that most of them will have new teams in 2024. Here are some guesses as to where they could end up for the 2024 season.
James Paxton
Paxton is a tough one because he has a history of injuries, but who also is a tremendous performer when he is on the mound. One need only look at his performance in the first half of 2023 where he posted a 2.73 ERA to see what he is capable of.
However, the second half was a reminder that Paxton is far from a sure thing as he faded badly before having to go on the shelf with issues with his knee. It doesn't seem likely that he will be back in Boston and with Scott Boras as his agent, he is going to try and get paid one last time in a free agent market that doesn't have a lot of great starting pitching. Several contenders like the Cardinals, Dodgers, Braves, and Rays could use him, but he feels like a signing that Minnesota would make on a short-term deal.
Prediction: Twins - One year, $9 million with a vesting option for 2025 based on innings pitched.
Adalberto Mondesi
Folks seems to forget that Boston had Mondesi under contract for 2023, but there is good reason for that. Mondesi had been rehabbing from a torn ACL and never could get healthy this season before Boston shut him down in August from any baseball activities.
If he can get healthy again, Mondesi's speed is a game changer, but there is no indication that he is close to returning and it is an open question as to whether or not his career is over. However, our guess is that he will try to catch on with someone on a non-guaranteed deal this spring to hopefully prove that he can come back from the knee injury.
Prediction: Minor league deal somewhere at best
Corey Kluber
Kluber is long past his prime and 2023 was a lost season for him altogether. In 55 innings pitched for Boston this season, he posted a 7.04 ERA before hitting the injured list with shoulder inflammation over the summer. Boston soon became convinced that he wasn't going to bounce back in time to help him and his transfer to the 60 day IL in August ended his 2023 season and the Red Sox very quickly declined his $11 million option for 2024.
Shoulder troubles are a big red flag for teams, so Kluber is going to have to settle for a one year deal that is probably going to have to be significantly cheaper than the $10 million deal he signed with the Red Sox for 2023. Starting pitching is still going to be in high demand, though, and St. Louis is going to have to add multiple starters this offseason which makes them the team fit here.
Prediction: Cardinals - One year, $4.5 million with incentives
Justin Turner
Arguably the biggest blow potentially to the Red Sox in terms of free agent losses is Justin Turner. Not only was he a tremendous influence in Boston's clubhouse, he can also still game as he slashed .276/.345/.455 with 23 homers in 2023. He isn't the same guy he once was, but there little sense that he doesn't have a couple good seasons left in the tank.
Turner declined his $13.4 million option for next season, but has also indicated that he would be more than willing to return to the Red Sox. Our guess is that Craig Breslow will want to have Turner's leadership and production to help shepherd the Red Sox's position players while he retools Boston's pitching staff. A guaranteed two year deal feels like it should be enough to convince JT to return.
Prediction: Returns to the Red Sox - Two years, $23 million
Adam Duvall
This free agent class stinks when it comes to impact bats beyond Shohei Ohtani which makes a guy like Adam Duvall very intriguing. Duvall posted an .834 OPS for Boston this year, but he also only played 92 games due to dealing with a wrist injury for the second straight season. Duvall is also notoriously streaky as he will look like Babe Ruth for a week or two and then completely disappear for a while afterwards.
A reunion with Boston isn't out of the question, but Duvall is going to be one of those guys that is going to get a lot of attention as a one or two year stopgap. Another former team of his, the Braves, could be an option as a right-handed outfield bat could be really useful for them, but we are going to bet on the Angels here. LA needs to get their pitching staff right especially after the expected loss of Ohtani and Duvall would be a cheap option to play left or DH while they try to overhaul their roster elsewhere.
Prediction: Angels - One year, $8 million with incentives
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