Orioles vs. Red Sox prediction and odds for Thursday, March 30
By Josh Yourish
It’s Opening Day and it feels like it’s been forever since we’ve had baseball. Now, we get to kick things off with the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on Thursday. These are two teams that we need to learn a lot about in the beginning of the season, but for now what we know is, Kyle Gibson and Corey Kluber will be taking the mound and AL East baseball is back.
Last season, the Orioles shocked the baseball world with a winning record, 83-79 while Boston fell off massively after an ALCS appearance in 2021 and finished 78-84.
Let’s get into the odds for this Opening Day game in Boston, the first of a three-game series.
Orioles vs. Red Sox odds, run line and total
Run Line:
- Orioles +1.5 (-180)
- Red Sox -1.5 (+155)
Moneyline:
- Orioles +115
- Red Sox -128
Orioles vs. Red Sox prediction and pick
The Baltimore Orioles were a very big surprise last season as they went from the worst team in the MLB the year prior to threatening for a Wild Card spot in 2022. They’re still an ascending team because of their young talent, but maybe aren’t the dark horse division winner pick we thought they’d be because of a lack of additions in the offseason. The Red Sox were a bit of a surprise for another reason. Boston fell to the bottom of the AL East and these teams could be ships passing in the night as the Red Sox fade into the abyss without Mookie Betts and now without Xander Bogaerts and the Orioles ride Adley Rutchsman and Gunnar Henderson to relevance.
While I see good things in Baltimore’s future and not so much for Boston I do like the Red Sox to get off to a 1-0 start this season. Corey Kluber is not an ideal starting pitcher for Opening Day, but he’s better than Kyle Gibson is.
Gibson was in the 18th percentile of expected batting average, 23rd percentile of expected slugging and 29th percentile in chase rate last season. He doesn’t miss bats and can get hit hard for extra bases. Kluber doesn’t get much swing and miss either, 31st percentile in K%, but he was at least 75th percentile in hard hit percentage, 34.7%. Baltimore’s lineup won’t have a ton of pop, so I’ll side with Boston.
Pick: Red Sox -128
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change