Marlins vs. Red Sox prediction and odds for Thursday, June 29 (Big spot for Brayan Bello)

There is value on the total in the Red Sox-Marlins matchup with Brayan Bello on the mound.
Boston Red Sox pitcher Brayan Bello (66)
Boston Red Sox pitcher Brayan Bello (66) / Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday, the struggling Boston Red Sox offense couldn’t get it done against Braxton Garrett of the Miami Marlins in a 6-2 Miami victory and today they’ll face another lefty, Jesus Luzardo.

Luzardo is 6-5 with a 3.77 ERA for the 47-34 Marlins who have won four straight and are going for the sweep of the 40-41 Red Sox. 

Boston will counter with Brayan Bello to try and avoid losing five straight games as their losing streak sits at four. Bello is 5-4 with a 3.27 ERA in 12 starts. Even at Fenway Park, the Marlins are very slim favorites to take Game 3 and complete the sweep. Here is a look at the odds. 

Marlins vs. Red Sox odds, run line and total

Marlins vs. Red Sox prediction and odds

If there is anyone developing into the “stopper” for the Red Sox, it’s Brayan Bello. He’s become a very strong starting pitcher for them at a young age and they have won his last three starts. He is a little under a strikeout an inning guy for the year with 62 in 66.0 innings, but his walk rate is much improved from last season which has led to more success. 

While Bello is good, he’s not quite the guy they need to save their floundering offense, and with how bad their bats have been that guy might be prime Pedro Martinez.

In the past week, the Red Sox have an OPS of .564 which is only better than the A’s who just had a perfect game thrown against them last night. Their three home runs in those games is also tied for the fewest in the league over that stretch. 

Against lefties, Justin Turner and Adam Duvall are typically two of Boston’s best options, but yesterday against Garrett they were a combined 1-for-7.

In the past week those two lead the team in at-bats and each has an OPS under .500. Jesus Luzardo was fantastic last time out, seven innings of two hit, shutout ball, against the struggling Pirates and the Red Sox might be even hitting worse than Pittsburgh was in that series.

I’ll take the under in this one because of my trust in Bello and my lack of trust in the lineup. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change