Mariners vs. Red Sox prediction and odds for Tuesday, May 16 (How to bet over/under)

May 3, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) pitches
May 3, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) pitches / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners continue its early week series at Fenway Park on Tuesday night.

Boston continues to stay in the mix in the AL East, which has been the toughest division in baseball while it continues to hunt for consistent starting pitching as the Mariners are hanging around the .500 mark as it searches for consistent hitting.

The contrasting styles of play are on display on Tuesday night with the Red Sox hoping Nick Pivetta can find his form against a lackluster Mariners lineup after about a 40 game sample. However, Seattle is paced by its elite pitching with AL Cy Young candidate Luis Castillo taking the mound Tuesday in Boston.

How should we handicap this matchup? Let's dive into the odds and find a best bet:

Mariners vs. Red Sox odds, run line and total

Mariners vs. Red Sox prediction and pick

While Fenway Park is a hitter friendly stadium, I'm going to side with Castillo and Pivetta to keep runs to a minimum.

Pivetta has struggled in 2023, posting a 6.23 ERA, but this is a favorable matchup for the right hander to get on track after seven starts this year considering the Mariners struggle to get on base. Seattle is 25th in batting average over the past week and are striking out on more than a quarter of its at bats. Pivetta is capable of striking out batters, more than nine per nine innings, but the righties biggest issue is home runs, allowing more two homers per nine.

However, Seattle is 22nd in dingers this year. The team won't take advantage of Pivetta's biggest flaws.

On the other hand, Castillo will be in Cy Young form on the mound against a Red Sox team that is starting to slow down. The Red Sox have one of the best offenses in baseball, but Castillo has been one of the best arms in baseball, posting a 2.70 ERA while striking out double digit batters in nine innings and walking less than two per nine.

The Mariners offense isn't trustworthy to back as road favorites, but Castillo leads me to back the under on Tuesday night.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.