Mariners vs. Red Sox prediction and odds for Monday, May 15 (Back Boston's Shaky Pitching Staff)

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Tanner Houck (89)
Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Tanner Houck (89) / Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Red Sox had a tough weekend at Fenway Park, dropping three straight games to the St. Louis Cardinals and to add insult to injury they’ve dropped to last place in the AL East at 22-19. Now, the Red Sox will host the Seattle Mariners for three games at Fenway. Seattle took two of three from Detroit this weekend to climb up to 20-20. They are fourth in the AL West.

For Game 1 of this series, the Mariners will hand the ball to George Kirby who is 4-2 with a 2.62 ERA. The Red Sox will counter with 3-2 Tanner Houck. Houck has a 5.26 ERA in seven starts. Let’s get into the odds for the Mariners and Red Sox on Monday night in Boston.

Mariners vs. Red Sox odds, run line and total

Mariners vs. Red Sox prediction and pick

Kirby has been great all year for Seattle and is clearly making a leap in his second season in the majors, but his last start was his best. He scattered six hits over seven innings and didn’t allow a run against the Rangers. He also had nine strikeouts and no walks. His FIP is 2.65 and he is carrying an expected ERA of 3.16. His strikeout rate has been low this season, only 34th percentile, but nine last time out was very promising. He can also survive not being a big swing and miss pitcher because he locates so well and is 99th percentile in walk rate. 

Boston has been carried by their lineup this season and they still scored 10 runs over the three-game weekend series, but they allowed 21 to St. Louis. The Red Sox have a 5.09 ERA in May which is 26th in baseball and opponents are hitting .266 off their staff this month which is seventh worst. Tanner Houck has a 5.26 ERA, but a 4.04 FIP which indicates some possible positive regression coming his way. 

Despite the struggles of Boston’s staff, I think Houck is due for a strong start and Seattle has a team OPS under .700 this month. The Mariners haven’t been able to rely on Julio Rodriguez who has a .529 OPS in May and Jarred Kelenic has come down to earth with a .721 OPS this month, so I don’t trust their offense and I’ll take the under.  

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change