Mariners vs. Red Sox prediction and odds for Wednesday, May 17 (Boston lineup gets it done at home)

May 16, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox right fielder Alex Verdugo (99) rounds
May 16, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox right fielder Alex Verdugo (99) rounds / Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

It's been two vastly different games in Boston as the Red Sox bounced back after losing 10-1 on Monday to beat the visiting Mariners 9-4 on Tuesday.

The rubber match goes down Wednesday night at Fenway Park as both teams jockey for position in a crowded American League. Brayan Bello will look to settle into his role as a starter after a shaky start to his first full big league season while counting on the Red Sox lineup to get the better of lefty start Marco Gonzales.

Here are the odds for the rubber match between the Red Sox and Mariners:

Mariners vs. Red Sox odds, run line and total

Mariners vs. Red Sox prediction and pick

The Mariners are simply not a good hitting team this season, batting just .229 as a unit and are 25th in slugging percentage. The team will face Bello, a righty that has flashed promise but also can't avoid the big fly. He has allowed five home runs in 23.1 innings of work, a concerning number but one that can level out over time. I don't see this being a big issue on Wednesday against the lifeless bats of the Mariners.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox have one of the best lineups in baseball, third in slugging percentage and top 10 in on-base percentage against left handed pitching. That'll be important against the soft throwing Gonzales as Boston is fantastic at getting the ball in play and generating run scoring chances.

Seattle does have the best bullpen in terms of ERA this season, but I believe that the Red Sox excellence against lefties is going to put the team in a precarious position early and often.

I'll side with Boston as small home favorites in what is an advantageous hitting matchup.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.