Evaluating Brayan Bello's Red Sox contract extension after year one

In March, the Boston Red Sox handed young starter Brayan Bello a six-year, $55 million extension with a club option for a seventh year.

Bello barely had 200 big league innings under his belt at the time and was coming off of a slightly above-average season at best before the deal. The move, along with Rafael Devers' massive extension prior to 2023 and Ceddanne Rafaela's eight-year contract signed this April, is part of the front office's new policy of committing to homegrown talent. It's a not-so-subtle attempt to make up for the departures of Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, both former Boston farmhands.

That sentiment is all well and good, but is the Bello contract actually working for the Red Sox? Obviously, the extension is still young, but Bello's somewhat pedestrian 2024 campaign forces us to question whether it was the right move for the Red Sox long-term.

Bello's career 4.50 ERA and 1.427 WHIP don't exactly scream "franchise cornerstone." A closer look at his peripherals reveals struggles with control and hard contact. The former no doubt contributes to the latter. In 2024, he ranks in the 28th and 34th percentile in hard-hit rate and walk rate, respectively. The high walk rate is a worrisome development since he only walked 6.7% of batters he faced in 2023.

The first year of Brayan Bello's Red Sox extension wasn't great, but he has plenty of time to right the ship

On the bright side, he's been mostly healthy and has thrown over 300 innings in the last two seasons combined. His high ground ball rate is a definite positive, especially at the hitter's paradise that is Fenway Park. And he's had flashes of brilliance in a Red Sox uniform, like his start on Aug. 28, when he threw eight scoreless frames, allowing just two hits and a walk while striking out nine.

Bello may not have taken off yet, but he certainly has potential. His youth is the main reason not to label the extension a failure. He's still just 25 and will be 30 when the contract is up. That means the Red Sox have him for what should be his prime years as a big leaguer. It's easy to believe that he'll improve with experience and become a valuable contributor.

Another reason not to give up on Bello is the contract itself, because his salary will contribute less than $10 million to the payroll annually. For a big-market team that can afford high payrolls, Bello's contract carries relatively little risk. The upside if he turns into an ace is tremendous: an elite pitcher on an extremely team-friendly deal, giving the Red Sox both quality innings and financial flexibility.

Bello's contract hasn't worked out like a dream so far, but it's far from a nightmare. Even with his struggles, Bello has still been serviceable, and more importantly, he's been available. If this is as bad as it gets, the Red Sox won't have lost much. Either way, there are still five years to go, and labeling this contract a failure is a knee-jerk reaction.

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