Dream Red Sox starting rotation for the 2024 season
If Craig Breslow is willing to spend big money, Boston could have a top-tier rotation next year
Every offseason, baseball fans are given a renewed sense of hope that their team might splurge and make historic additions during free agency.
Some fans are rewarded with huge moves while others are let down. For fans of the Boston Red Sox, the latter became far too familiar during the Chaim Bloom era.
Hiring Craig Breslow as the new Chief Baseball Officer doesn’t guarantee a spending spree is on its way, but it does give Red Sox fans some optimism about the team’s aggressiveness this offseason.
Here’s what a dream 2024 Red Sox rotation could look like if Breslow aces the offseason.
No. 1: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Other than Shohei Ohtani, who won’t even pitch until 2025, the most prized arm on the open market belongs to Yamamoto. Expected to be posted within the next week, the 25-year-old will be a highly sought-after rotation option for many MLB teams given his youth and proven talent on the mound.
Through 24 games with the Orix Buffaloes last season, he went 17-6 while posting a 1.16 ERA, 9.3 K/9, and 1.5 BB/9. He also kept loud contact to a minimum, surrendering just two homers over 171 innings of work. Signing international players with no stateside experience always has some risk, but Yamamoto might be as close to a “sure thing” as you’ll get.
No. 2: Jordan Montgomery
Montgomery took the baseball world by storm during the second half of the 2023 season, leading the Rangers to a playoff berth and, ultimately, a World Series title. The 30-year-old southpaw is a proven winner and has maintained a sub-4.00 FIP in each of the last four seasons.
In 2023, Baseball Savant credited Montgomery with a Pitching Run Value of 19.0, which ranked in the 93rd percentile. He also amassed 7.92 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, and a 43.2 percent ground ball rate. The southpaw’s representatives have already met with Breslow and the Red Sox, so while no deal is imminent, there is clearly some mutual interest here.
No. 3: Brayan Bello
Bello has emerged as a franchise cornerstone for the Red Sox, and extending him should be on the top of Breslow’s offseason to-do list. He could certainly handle being a No. 1 or 2 option in the rotation, but think about what deploying him as the No. 3 would say about Boston’s depth.
Bello’s repertoire impressed in 2023. He dazzled with his fastball, topping out around 98 mph, but arguably enjoyed even more success with his changeup. The off-speed pitch led to a phenomenal 38.7 percent whiff rate and minuscule .218 xwOBA. Finally, Bello’s tendency to induce weak contact continued as he delivered a 56.2 percent ground ball rate. Boston’s future is bright with Bello in the rotation for years to come.
No. 4: Chris Sale
Sale’s demise over the past half-decade has been disheartening, and it’s looking like he could be a back-of-the-rotation arm in 2024. Quite simply, injuries have hindered the back half of the southpaw’s career, holding him to just 31 games over the last four seasons.
Despite his numerous absences, Sale has flashed potential when healthy. His slider continued to look nasty in 2023, inducing a 29.1 percent put-away rate. Meanwhile, he ranked near the top of the league with his 33.6 percent chase rate and 29.4 percent strikeout rate. In case it wasn’t clear, the 34-year-old is still capable of missing bats.
No. 5: Eric Lauer
Nick Pivetta is a candidate for the fifth spot and will ultimately remain in the rotation if the Red Sox have a quieter offseason. However, we’re projecting a “dream” scenario here, and in a perfect world, Pivetta shifts to the bullpen as a reliable multi-inning reliever.
Lauer is an ideal target for the Red Sox because of his upside. As mentioned last week, there’s a chance that Lauer could return to being a very talented starter if he’s healthy and throws his slider a lot more. He also comes dirt cheap. If signing Lauer pays off, he’s viewed as a steal who can make key contributions down the stretch. If it doesn’t work out, Boston can easily cut its losses and pivot back to Pivetta.
More Red Sox news from BoSox Injection
manual