Dream Red Sox starting lineup for the 2024 season
Here's what a dream Red Sox lineup could look like going into 2024.
The Boston Red Sox and their new front office have a lot of work to do this offseason. While the starting pitching staff understandably is where the bulk of the attention is at the moment, Boston also needs to make some moves to make their lineup more well-rounded and to give some of their young guys a chance to succeed.
Right now, the understanding is that Boston could be in play for a second baseman, a right-handed hitting outfielder, and a DH assuming said DH is of high quality. Interesting options at all price points exist for all of those positions in free agency, but what could Boston's lineup look like if money was no object and Craig Breslow swung for the fences before the 2024 season?
The dream 2024 Boston Red Sox starting lineup
While this is going to be a "dream" scenario, there are some self-imposed limits here. It would be easy to just assemble an All-Star team by assuming trades for players that are very likely to be unavailable happen, but that seems to go a bit far. The goal here is to keep this feeling like a Red Sox lineup while adding available free agents where appropriate with very little regard for payroll limitations. Boston's ownership and front office probably wouldn't let this happen, but it is still fun to think about.
#1 - Ceddanne Rafaela - CF
Lineup construction can go a lot of different ways from just listing guys from best hitters -> worst hitters to a more traditional lineup that prioritizes traditional lineup roles and handedness. We are going to split the difference with this lineup and go with Ceddanne Rafaela in the leadoff spot.
Rafaela was a revelation in the minor leagues for Boston in 2023 as he showed a tantalizing combination of speed, power, and defensive acumen. In 108 games between Double-A and Triple-A, Ceddanne slashed .304/.349/.520 with 20 homers and 36 stolen bases. Given that he did basically the same thing in 2022, there is no reason to think that last season was an outlier. It sure helps that he is a very good and versatile defender who could win a Gold Glove in center.
Ceddanne got his first taste of the big leagues late in 2023 to mixed results. He showed glimpses of the player he was in the minors, but still only managed to post a .666 OPS in 89 plate appearances with a couple homers and three stolen bases. We are wagering that he will be significantly better than that in 2024 and would be a lineup staple for Boston even in the most ideal scenario.
There is some risk with giving a young player such an important spot in the lineup, but Rafaela has the talent to make it worth the risk.
#2 - Rafael Devers - 3B
The easiest inclusion in the dream 2024 Red Sox lineup amongst their incumbents is Rafael Devers. Devers has been consistently awesome for Boston since 2019 and given that he is under contract through the 2033 season, he is set to be a cornerstone of the Red Sox's offense for a long, long time.
Coming off back-to-back All-Star campaigns in 2021 and 2022, Devers put up yet another excellent season this year with a .271/.351/.500 slash line with 33 homers and his third career 100 RBI season. The guy just does everything you want at the plate for a #2 hitter: hits for power, gets on base at a good clip, and knows how to produce with runners on base.
Again, no surprises here that Devers is sticking around. An added benefit for this particular lineup is that Devers is a lefty as it allows Boston to alternate handedness with the leadoff spot. Assuming things go to plan, Boston should be able to be flexible with their lineup based on if their is a lefty or righty on the mound, but Devers is a mortal lock to be in the lineup either way.
From here on, things may start to look a little weird, but stick with us.
#3 - Jorge Soler/Masataka Yoshida - LF
Given Boston's need to balance their lineup out with at least one more righty bat and the fact that they have a few guys that might be best served as DH, left field is a tricky spot to suss out. Masataka Yoshida had a perfectly reasonable MLB debut, but adding Jorge Soler could be exactly what Boston should want to do.
The Red Sox signed Adam Duvall with the idea of giving them a power-hitting, right-handed bat and Soler is exactly that without the ongoing injury issues that Duvall has dealt with. Soler was banged up in 2022, but he bounced back last year to hit 36 homers with Miami before he decided to test free agency and opted out of his deal with the Marlins.
Soler probably wouldn't be the cheapest option especially if he was used as a strictly platoon option, but we don't care about the money here. More importantly, adding him would allow Boston to slide Soler to DH occasionally (more on that spot in a second) and lengthen Boston's lineup against lefties who gave Boston trouble at times last year. Jorge batting in Fenway Park is also a very fun idea to think about.
Yoshida has earned a chance to see if he can take the next step in 2024. He posted a .783 OPS in 2023 and while he needs to learn to draw more walks, there is plenty to like about what he showed this season in Boston even if there is a chance that he needs to be moved down the lineup in the future.
#4 - Shohei Ohtani - DH
Now we are talking. The Red Sox have been one of several teams connected with the elephant in the room that is Shohei Ohtani's free agency. The roster fit in Boston for a guy that can only DH next season isn't perfect, but Ohtani is such a unique and special player that Boston should happily try to figure it out assuming they can actually sign Shohei.
Ignoring Ohtani's ability on the mound when healthy for a moment, he was a monster at the plate in 2023 for the Angels. Shohei put up a staggering 1.066 OPS in almost 600 plate appearances with 44 home runs and 20 stolen bases. If he hadn't gotten hurt, it is highly likely that he would have easily eclipsed 50 homers and put together one of the best offensive seasons the sport of baseball has ever seen.
Shohei's elbow injury and subsequent surgery does matter here, though, and is one reason why he would only be batting fourth here to start with. The initial word is that he will be able to hit from Opening Day on, but a certain amount of caution from the outset seems to be wise including giving him some days off here and there.
Again, a lefty power bat that needs to DH isn't exactly the perfect fit for a team that has Yoshida, Triston Casas, and potentially Soler. However, there is also the long-term plan to think about and Ohtani's contributions as a pitcher can't be ignored. Assuming his rehab goes well, Boston would be getting a top flight starter for 2025 and beyond in addition to bolstering their lineup in one (very expensive) player.
#5 - Trevor Story - SS
This year's free agent crop of shortstops leaves a lot to be desired. While Boston would love to improve up the middle in the infield, they do have Trevor Story under contract for the next several years and he has the upside to be the impact shortstop that the Red Sox sorely need.
Make no mistake: the first couple years of Story's tenure with Boston have been a disaster. He dealt with injuries throughout the 2022 season while posting a career low .737 OPS at the plate with just 16 homers. The news didn't get better in 2023 as Story had to have Tomy John surgery before the season even started. Boston did activate him in August this season, but he did not play well upon his return which is mildly concerning.
The bet here is that Story will return to form with a full and normal offseason and will be better than any of the free agent options available. That is far from a sure thing and if Story struggles again in 2024 with injuries and/or production, the calls to give top prospect Marcelo Mayer a shot will grow exponentially.
For the moment, though, we are willing to give Story a shot who just a couple years ago was one of the best shortstop bats in baseball. If he does bounce back, having a quality righty bat in the fifth spot here helps the cause considerably.
#6 - Triston Casas - 1B
First base is another one of those positions this year in free agency that isn't very exciting. Rhys Hoskins could be an interesting buy-low candidate coming off an injury and the 40 year old version of Joey Votto is available, but Boston has a really talented young first baseman on their roster in Triston Casas and he deserves a shot to develop even further.
The first couple of months didn't go particularly well. The first month was a disaster and while May was a bit better, he still only had six homers through the season's first two months and there was open speculation that Boston could look to trade him away. However, Casas broke out in the second half with a .317/.417/.617 line with 15 homers.
Unfortunately, Casas' rookie season was cut short due to inflammation in his shoulder. At first look, the injury doesn't appear to be a long-term concern. While Triston's unorthodox preparation and pre-game rituals did rub some folks the wrong way, but he seems to have settled in as Boston's first baseman of the future.
Worst case scenario, Boston has to go with another internal option at first base, but the bet is that he will be just fine and his left-handed bat is a nice fit in the six spot.
#7 - Jarren Duran - RF
In the seven spot, our hand is forced a bit regarding Boston's outfield situation. One the one hand, Alex Verdugo was a pretty good player for the Red Sox in 2023 as he accumulated 2.3 rWAR with a mediocre, but still passable .745 OPS. However, there is just too much noise surrouding a Verdugo trade to ignore and the spot instead goes to Jarren Duran.
Before his season was prematurely ended due to a turf toe injury, Duran was putting up a great season for the Red Sox with an .828 OPS while stealing 24 bases in just 102 games. It took him a while to get his hit tool in a good place in the big leagues, but he appears to be primed to be a dynamic game-changer for Boston for years to come.
Having a righty bat makes a lot of sense here and Duran is batting this low for two reasons. First, the toe injury required surgery which is a little spooky for a guy whose speed is such an important part of his game. Second, while he was awesome in 2023 when he was on the field, his track record is still a bit spotty to put him any higher in this loaded lineup.
#8 - Connor Wong - C
Someone has to be the worst hitter in this dream lineup and more often than not in the modern game of baseball, its going to be at catcher. Catching is such a physically demanding position to play well that teams often have to concede some offense to get a catcher who can actually do the job of calling games and controlling the run game.
Connor Wong checked the boxes that needed checking in 2023 for the Red Sox. Hitting .233 with a bit of power isn't overly fantastic, but he was still a 2+ win player this year which is more than sufficient at a position where finding players that are even passable is difficult.
Part of the issue here is that the free agent market for catchers is pretty rough. Yasmani Grandal's best days are well behind him and while the Astros loved Martin Maldonado's management of the pitching staff, he was one of the worst players in baseball in 2023 outside of that. Mitch Garver can definitely hit, but isn't an everyday catcher and is a better fit at DH which Boston definitely doesn't need for this exercise.
Perhaps an unexciting option. Wong still gets the nod near the bottom of the lineup.
#9 - Tim Anderson - 2B
It wasn't that long ago that Tim Anderson was considered to have among the best hit tools in all of MLB during his time with the White Sox. He won a batting title in 2019 and hit over .300 from 2019-2022. Anderson also showed some power in Chicago as he was good for 15-20 homers every season.
Unfortunately, his power dipped in 2022 and his 2023 season was truly terrible. Anderson's injury issues the last couple of years are partially to blame, but a .582 OPS in 2023 and -2.0 rWAR is tough to put a positive spin on, although he did play significantly better in the second half.
After the White Sox declined his option for 2024, there is a chance Anderson is going to have to settle for a one year, make good deal for 2024 as teams will be wary of his challenging at times personality and declining production. However, this is a guy that was a really good player very recently and could provide a useful edge in the Red Sox's clubhouse as long as Alex Cora can keep the guardrails on him.
One important note here: Anderson is playing second base in this lineup. While he was primarily a shortstop with the White Sox, his defensive metrics there have been pretty bad the last two seasons. He has already signaled a willingness to move to second base and if Boston were able to acquire him, that seems to be the best option especially with Story at short.
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