Competition for open spots in the Red Sox rotation is heating up

The Boston Red Sox dealt with a plethora of injuries in 2022. Among the most memorable were those suffered by staff ace Chris Sale. The team ultimately finished in last place in the AL East with only 78 wins. The hope is that this season will be different.

Red Sox enter 2023 season with more quality starting pitching depth

While there have been a few minor setbacks suffered by starters Brayan Bello (forearm tightness) and James Paxton (grade 1 hamstring strain), things seem to be looking better *knock on wood* than last year. By this time in 2022, Chris Sale had fractured a rib and was expected to miss considerable time to start the season.

The Red Sox signed veteran free agent Corey Kluber this off-season, but aside from that there were no outside moves made to (directly) bolster the rotation. James Paxton exercised his 1-year, $4 million player option to return for the 2023 season, as well, but all other candidates for the rotation this season were already with the organization in 2022 (Houck, Pivetta, Sale, Crawford, Winckowski, Mata, Walter, and Murphy).

Based on several reports, it seems possible that the Red Sox begin the season with Brayan Bello, James Paxton, and Garrett Whitlock on the injured list. None of them are expected to miss significant time, but the team will likely be faced with a choice of who to slot into the rotation when facing the Tigers and Royals in early-April.

If Chris Sale starts on Opening Day against the Orioles, Corey Kluber and Nick Pivetta would presumably take the ball in games 2 and 3 of the opening series, respectively. But who do the Red Sox turn to after that? Let's take a look at how the remaining starting rotation candidates have fared so far this spring.

Kutter Crawford: 21 appearances (12 starts) with Red Sox in 2022

Kutter Crawford logged 77.1 innings with the Red Sox in 2022, making him one of the more experienced contenders for a spot in the 2023 rotation whenever the team faces injury problems. His ERA (5.47) and WHIP (1.42) at the big-league level last season are nothing to get excited about, but so far this spring he has looked impressive.

In his 2 spring training outings thus far (on February 27th and March 5th), he has logged 5 total innings, while scattering 2 hits and striking out 5 over that span. He has surrendered 0 runs and has yet to walk a batter. It would be foolish to take too much away from spring training results (in terms of stat-line and correlating it to regular season success), but Crawford has shown thus far that he is able to command the strike zone, induce weak contact, and make quality pitches.

If Kutter Crawford can do those things for the Red Sox early on in 2023, he has a good chance of delivering quality performances against weaker opponents like the Tigers and Royals. This would eliminate the need to rush Whitlock, Bello, and Paxton back to full strength, which reduces the risk of experiencing a setback.

Tanner Houck: 32 appearances (4 starts) with Red Sox in 2022

Tanner Houck, the Swiss army knife of the Red Sox, is no stranger to being utilized in a variety of roles. Last season, he was used primarily in relief (including as the closer), but he did also make 4 starts.

Houck's pitching ability and quality of stuff has never been in-doubt; rather, it has been his ability to consistently throw strikes that has held him back. Throwing 20-25 pitches per inning, working deep in counts, and stranding baserunners that were put on-base by a walk or hit-by-pitch is not too detrimental for a reliever. However, this way of operating is simply not sustainable for a starting pitcher.

In 20 career starts, Tanner Houck has never pitched into the 7th inning; he has only logged 6 innings on two occasions. In 146.0 innings pitched in his MLB career, he has missed plenty of bats (164 strikeouts); he has also struggled with his command (13 HBP, 52 walks).

If Houck is hoping to win a spot in the Opening Day starting rotation, he will need to prove that he can throw strikes consistently and attack hitters early in counts. So far this spring, results have been less than ideal in this regard.

In his only spring training outing to-date (March 2nd), he lasted 1.2 innings and issued 4 walks. He did strike out 2 and did not give up any hits or runs, but as a starting pitcher he will be expected to be more than just effective. He will need to be efficient, as well.

Josh Winckowski: 15 appearances (14 starts) with Red Sox in 2022

Josh Winckowski, like Kutter Crawford, was thrust into the starting rotation mix for the Red Sox in 2022 and struggled mightily. In his rookie season, he pitched 70.1 innings to the tune of a 5.89 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. One major concern, aside from general ineffectiveness, was his inability to miss bats. He struck out only 44 batters in those 70.1 innings, compared to 85 hits and 27 walks.

Despite his struggles last season, the Red Sox seem confident in Winckowski's ability to take a major step forward in 2023. He and Crawford are the only 2 Red Sox starters to log 3 full innings in a spring training game. Like Crawford, Winckowski has now pitched 5 innings in 2023. He has allowed 0 runs, while scattering 3 hits and 3 walks. Perhaps most notably, he has fanned 7.

During a NESN interview with Tom Caron, Winckowski shared that he was working on "a whole new grip" for his slide during the off-season. According to Baseball Savant, his slider was his second-most utilized pitch (28.6%), trailing only his sinker (38.4%).

If Josh Winckowski can get more consistent whiffs with his off-speed pitch and prove that he can spot his fastball more consistently, he could be considered as multi-inning reliever or spot starter in 2023. Winckowski is only 24 years old, so it isn't unreasonable to think that he could take a much-needed step forward this season. We'll see.