Competition for open spots in the Red Sox rotation is heating up

Kutter Crawford: 21 appearances (12 starts) with Red Sox in 2022

Kutter Crawford logged 77.1 innings with the Red Sox in 2022, making him one of the more experienced contenders for a spot in the 2023 rotation whenever the team faces injury problems. His ERA (5.47) and WHIP (1.42) at the big-league level last season are nothing to get excited about, but so far this spring he has looked impressive.

In his 2 spring training outings thus far (on February 27th and March 5th), he has logged 5 total innings, while scattering 2 hits and striking out 5 over that span. He has surrendered 0 runs and has yet to walk a batter. It would be foolish to take too much away from spring training results (in terms of stat-line and correlating it to regular season success), but Crawford has shown thus far that he is able to command the strike zone, induce weak contact, and make quality pitches.

If Kutter Crawford can do those things for the Red Sox early on in 2023, he has a good chance of delivering quality performances against weaker opponents like the Tigers and Royals. This would eliminate the need to rush Whitlock, Bello, and Paxton back to full strength, which reduces the risk of experiencing a setback.

Tanner Houck: 32 appearances (4 starts) with Red Sox in 2022

Tanner Houck, the Swiss army knife of the Red Sox, is no stranger to being utilized in a variety of roles. Last season, he was used primarily in relief (including as the closer), but he did also make 4 starts.

Houck's pitching ability and quality of stuff has never been in-doubt; rather, it has been his ability to consistently throw strikes that has held him back. Throwing 20-25 pitches per inning, working deep in counts, and stranding baserunners that were put on-base by a walk or hit-by-pitch is not too detrimental for a reliever. However, this way of operating is simply not sustainable for a starting pitcher.

In 20 career starts, Tanner Houck has never pitched into the 7th inning; he has only logged 6 innings on two occasions. In 146.0 innings pitched in his MLB career, he has missed plenty of bats (164 strikeouts); he has also struggled with his command (13 HBP, 52 walks).

If Houck is hoping to win a spot in the Opening Day starting rotation, he will need to prove that he can throw strikes consistently and attack hitters early in counts. So far this spring, results have been less than ideal in this regard.

In his only spring training outing to-date (March 2nd), he lasted 1.2 innings and issued 4 walks. He did strike out 2 and did not give up any hits or runs, but as a starting pitcher he will be expected to be more than just effective. He will need to be efficient, as well.

Josh Winckowski: 15 appearances (14 starts) with Red Sox in 2022

Josh Winckowski, like Kutter Crawford, was thrust into the starting rotation mix for the Red Sox in 2022 and struggled mightily. In his rookie season, he pitched 70.1 innings to the tune of a 5.89 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. One major concern, aside from general ineffectiveness, was his inability to miss bats. He struck out only 44 batters in those 70.1 innings, compared to 85 hits and 27 walks.

Despite his struggles last season, the Red Sox seem confident in Winckowski's ability to take a major step forward in 2023. He and Crawford are the only 2 Red Sox starters to log 3 full innings in a spring training game. Like Crawford, Winckowski has now pitched 5 innings in 2023. He has allowed 0 runs, while scattering 3 hits and 3 walks. Perhaps most notably, he has fanned 7.

During a NESN interview with Tom Caron, Winckowski shared that he was working on "a whole new grip" for his slide during the off-season. According to Baseball Savant, his slider was his second-most utilized pitch (28.6%), trailing only his sinker (38.4%).

If Josh Winckowski can get more consistent whiffs with his off-speed pitch and prove that he can spot his fastball more consistently, he could be considered as multi-inning reliever or spot starter in 2023. Winckowski is only 24 years old, so it isn't unreasonable to think that he could take a much-needed step forward this season. We'll see.

Red Sox Prospect Contenders: Bryan Mata, Brandon Walter, and Chris Murphy

Bryan Mata (14 starts between AA Portland and AAA Worcester), Brandon Walter (11 starts between AA and AAA), and Chris Murphy (28 AA/AAA starts) have all impressed this spring. There really isn't much else to say - they have looked really, really good.

The trio has combined for 7.2 shutout innings with 13 strikeouts; over that stretch, they have surrendered only 3 hits, 3 walks, and 1 hit-by-pitch. To say they have checked all the boxes would be an understatement, but it's not yet clear just how much they would need to show Alex Cora and the Red Sox organization in the coming weeks to merit a "leapfrog" Crawford and Winckowski.

Barring additional health setbacks (which is possible, but hopefully not), Mata, Walter, and Murphy will likely begin the season in the WooSox rotation. This will allow each of them to get into a regular routine (as opposed to pitching in relief or bouncing back-and-forth between the Red Sox and the WooSox).

With that said, Alex Cora told MassLive's Chris Cotillo that Mata is likely to make his MLB debut at some point in 2023. The same chance likely exists for Walter and Murphy if their performance merits the opportunity and the schedules align.

This is where we are at now, you start talking about these kids. Bello and Mata and Whitlock and Tanner, you see it coming. At one point, (Mata) is gonna be part of this and he's gonna help us to win a few games.

Is Cora hinting at a youth movement that has begun within the Red Sox organization? It sure seems like it. Rafael Devers (26) is undoubtedly the cornerstone of the organization's plans, but players like Brayan Bello (23), Triston Casas (23), Bryan Mata (23) and a host of others will be a big part of this team's recipe for success going forward.