Boston Red Sox projections: Depressing to look at

Detroit Tigers v Boston Red Sox
Detroit Tigers v Boston Red Sox / Adam Glanzman/GettyImages
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"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair." - Charles Dickens

Charles Dickens may signal this offseason. The Boston Red Sox have a collection of players on a short-term lease, and they collectively have something to prove. Those on a one-year deal have a monetary goal, and performance is rewarded with excessive and often questionable contracts.

It is a matter of professional pride for those injury-related, such as Chris Sale. Once considered one of the best now faced with several seasons destroyed by injury and associated ineptness, and Sale is not alone in that category.

The big contract kahuna is Rafael Devers with a contract that goes deep into the 21st Century. Boston can be a living hell when a player fails to meet expectations, and Devers will be in the crosshairs of Red Sox Nation.

This pattern goes throughout the roster, and the future of Chaim Bloom is attached to it. This is Bloom's baby at this juncture, and Bloom was given some coin and has spent it wisely or recklessly. That will be decided as the season progresses, but how about the core roster of players? As Dickens noted, the best and worst of times, as the projection I will present, is under the worst.

How do you select the best and the worst with age and health factors as part of the puzzle? Cory Kluber is a typical example with two seasons in which he won the American League Cy Young Award. Even the most exuberant of Red Sox fans doubt Kluber will attain that level again.

I have chosen "Marcel the Monkey," the tool presented by metrics God Tom Tango for Baseball-Referance. So now, a look at the Red Sox depth chart for a baseline.

Boston Red Sox Projected Rotation

  • Corey Kluber: 9-8, 4.20. 150 IP
  • Nick Pivetta: 9-10, 4.36. 165 IP
  • Chris Sale: 4-4, 3.76. 67 IP
  • Garrett Whitlock: 5-3, 3.27. 77 IP
  • Brayan Bello: 4-7, 4.12. 83 IP
  • James Paxton: 3-3, 4.20. 60 IP

Mr. Monkey is influenced by injury history, and Bill James may have a more positive outlook in his projection cottage industry book.

Boston Red Sox Projected Bullpen

  • Kenley Jansen: 5-3, 3.38. 24 Saves
  • Chris Martin: 3-3, 3.63. 57 IP
  • John Schreiber: 3-3, 3.26. 58 IP
  • Tanner Houck: 4-4, 3.45. 73 IP
  • Joely Rodriguez: 3-3, 4.09. 55 IP
  • Ryan Brasier: 2-3, 4.50. 58 IP
  • Richard Bleier: 3-3, 3.63. 57 IP

Like their brethren in the rotation, there is a pile of .500 stats. Since baseball revolves around that small hill, the pre-season projections regarding the staff are pure "meh."

Boston Red Sox starting lineup

  • Reese McGuire catcher: 6/28/.252
  • Triston Casas first base: 9/29/.241
  • Christian Arroyo second base: 10/44/.266
  • Rafael Devers third base: 26/86/.282
  • Enrique Hernandez shortstop: 12/45/.239
  • Masataka Yoshida left field: Unknown
  • Alex Verdugo center field: 12/62/.282
  • Adam Duvall right field: 21/61/.225
  • Justin Turner DH: 16/71/.265

As noted about the Monkey - and I quote Tom Tango, it uses "as little intelligence as possible," and Tango does "not stand behind "these forecasts." As previously mentioned, Bill James' handbook will be more precise and does have some measure of reliability.

I always considered the various projections similar to astrology - it's fun to read but don't take it seriously. Hopefully, the Red Sox projections by Tom Tango will need to catch up in his reliability calcification.

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