5 bold predictions for the 2023 Boston Red Sox
Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas will win the AL ROY
Why it could happen: Triston Casas made his major league debut with the Red Sox last season, a brief 27-game sample that limited his service time enough for him to retain his rookie status this year.
While his woeful .197 batting average led some to believe that Casas was overmatched by major league pitching, the details tell a different story. His .208 BABIP was lower than any qualified hitter produced, suggesting Casas was extraordinarily unlucky. A player who hits the ball as hard as Casas should expect more balls to fall in for hits. According to Baseball Savant, Casas was above-average with a 41.5 Hard Hit%. Casas was hitting .281 in Triple-A so his sub-Mendoza line average during his limited time with the Red Sox was merely a small sample-sized fluke that will be corrected with more experience.
His reputation for his keen batting eye was on display with an elite 20.0 BB% last season. Juan Soto (20.3 BB%) was the only qualified major league hitter with a higher walk rate, per FanGraphs. Despite struggling to pile up hits, his knack for drawing walks enabled Casas to produce a .358 OBP, which would have tied Rafael Devers for 23rd in the majors if he had enough plate appearances to qualify.
Casas has produced only modest home run production in the minor leagues but he has the raw power to develop into a serious threat. He led Team USA to a silver medal in the Olympics last year with a tournament-leading three home runs and he's currently tied for the team lead with a pair of home runs in spring training. Fenway Park isn't ideally suited for a left-handed slugger but his ability to hit the ball hard to all fields will allow Casas to tap into his power potential.
Everyone digs the long ball, including the voters for season awards. If Casas can hit 25+ homers while maintaining an elite OBP with some positive regression for his AVG, he'll find himself in the Rookie of the Year conversation.
Why we can't lock it in: One area that Casas will aim to improve upon this season is cutting back on the strikeouts. His 24.2 K% wasn't alarmingly high for a slugger with his power but it was higher than you would expect from a hitter with his strong sense of the strike zone. Casas didn't swing and miss much, producing a 9.5 SwStr% last season. His patience might act as a detriment at times though since his 18.0 called strike percentage was well above average.
Casas will also face stiff competition for the award. Baltimore's Gunnar Henderson is the heavy favorite for the AL ROY. He's a five-tool talent with 20-20 potential who can play both third base and shortstop. Angels catcher Logan O'Hoppe is excellent behind the plate and his bat has impressive power for the position. Rangers third baseman Josh Jung struggled when he was called up last year but his minor league track record proves he can hit.
Casas is a solid first baseman but he's up against competition that can provide better defense at more premium positions. Casas will need to clearly outproduce them all with his bat in order to take home the hardware.
Red Sox closer Kenley Jansen will lead the league in saves
Why it could happen: Jansen led the National League with 41 saves last season with the Atlanta Braves. It's the fourth time in his career that he has notched 40+ saves and his 391 career saves are the eighth-most in MLB history. Jansen is the elite closer that the Red Sox have lacked in recent years.
The Red Sox had one of the worst bullpens in baseball last season, producing a collective 4.59 ERA that rated as the fifth-worst in the majors. Boston logged 39 saves as a team, tied for the 12th-fewest. Red Sox relievers were charged with 33 losses, tied for the eighth-most.
Jansen wasn't the only move the Red Sox made to fortify their bullpen though. Chris Martin, Joely Rodriguez and Richard Bleier provide depth to a core of relievers that was dangerously thin last year. An improved bullpen means fewer blown leads before the Red Sox can hand the ball to their closer in the ninth, meaning the potential for more save opportunities.
Jansen has converted 88.3% of his career save opportunities. If the Red Sox can keep a lead long enough for a save situation, they can trust Jansen to slam the door shut.
Why we can't lock it in: Jansen's league-leading save total last year came while serving as the closer for a 101-win Braves team. I realize that I started this article by saying we're focusing on the positive, but even the most optimistic among us can't rationally predict this year's Red Sox team to top the century mark in wins. Not every win is going to present a save situation so it's going to be tough for Jansen to approach 40+ saves if his team's win total doesn't reach the 80s.
I'm not overly concerned about Jansen's ability when he's on the mound but it's fair to acknowledge that he's a 35-year-old pitcher whose 3.38 ERA last year was the second-worst of his career. He's still a reliable closer but he might be falling out of the elite category.
The greater concern is how Jansen will adjust to the new pitch clock rule. The veteran closer is notoriously the slowest pitcher in the league with runners on base. Jansen will undoubtedly figure it out but there is the potential for a slow start as he adjusts to speeding up his delivery.
Red Sox ace Chris Sale will finish top-5 on the AL Cy Young ballot
Why it could happen: Chris Sale is one of the most dominant pitchers of this generation. He finished top-five on the AL Cy Young ballot in six consecutive seasons from 2013-2018. He was the runner-up for the award in 2017, his first year with the Red Sox, when he led the league with 308 strikeouts and challenged Pedro Martinez's single-season franchise record (313).
The obvious concern with Sale is his health. The lanky lefty has made only 11 starts while logging 48 1/3 innings over the last three seasons. However, the majority of the time he missed was due to one elbow injury. Sale initially attempted to rely on rest and rehab to recover but when that didn't work, he reluctantly went under the knife for the dreaded Tommy John surgery, which sidelined him until August of the 2021 season. Disaster struck again last year in the form of three unrelated injuries - a stress fracture in his rib last spring, a broken finger that resulted from getting hit by a line drive, followed by a wrist injury from a bike accident. These are fluke incidents that could happen to anyone and it's extremely unlikely that Sale will be this snake-bitten again.
Many will call him injury prone but there's little evidence that his slender frame makes these types of injuries inevitable. Prior to the elbow injury in 2019, Sale was one of the game's most durable pitchers. Contrary to popular belief, he's not made of glass. This isn't a character from an M. Night Shyamalan film.
When healthy, Sale is still capable of being an ace-caliber starting pitcher. He went 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA and 11.0 K/9 in nine starts following his long-awaited return from Tommy John surgery in 2021. He produced a 3.18 ERA in his very brief sample last year. Sale has only made one appearance so far this spring but he had command of his fastball, which reached 96 mph, and the usual bite on his filthy slider.
Chris Sale is still Chris Sale as long as he's healthy enough to take the mound. Anything close to his previous form is enough to enter the Cy Young conversation. All we know is that he looked very good in his return to the bump in spring training this week.
Why we can't lock it in: I'm not in the camp of fans who assume that just because Sale has been hurt before, he's destined to be hurt every year. That's simply looking for something to complain about for the sake of it. These aren't recurring injuries where one issue continues to hinder him. However, we have to acknowledge that there is risk with a pitcher who hasn't been on the mound much over the last few years.
Even if Sale stays relatively healthy, the Red Sox will be overly cautious with his workload. They aren't going to push him deep into games on a regular basis and his pitch count will be carefully monitored. If the rest of their rotation stays healthy enough to provide sufficient depth, we may see Sale skip the occasional start to keep his innings total in check. The days of Sale being a 200+ inning workhorse are probably over. Granted, very few pitchers log that many innings anymore as teams are gravitating toward a reliance on bullpens. It wouldn't be surprising if Sale fell short of 150 innings even if he avoids a major injury. It isn't realistic to assume a heavier workload when he hasn't approached that total since 2019.
Sale could look every bit as dominant as he ever has on the mound but voters would hold it against him if the other contenders logged significantly more innings. That might cost him the award but the Red Sox would still be thrilled in Sale delivered a low ERA and dominant strikeout total over 20+ starts.
Red Sox star Rafael Devers will lead the majors in extra-base hits
Why it could happen: Devers has ranked top-10 in the majors in extra-base hits in each of the last four seasons. That includes 2019 when he led the majors with 90 XBH. Devers mashed 32 homers that season while leading the league with 54 doubles.
The Red Sox lineup was a bit underwhelming at times last season but they still maintained the tradition of leading the league in doubles. The towering Green Monster in left field at Fenway Park is an inviting target that turns routine fly outs into wall-ball doubles. Last season, four of the top 10 AL hitters in doubles were from the Red Sox, including Devers, who ranked fourth in the league with 42.
Rafael Devers finished eighth in the majors with 70 extra-base hits last season. He was still collecting doubles in bunches but his home run total dipped from his career-high 38 in 2021 to 27. Devers collected 22 of those home runs during a scorching first half of the season but a hamstring injury sent him to the injured list in late July. He struggled through a miserable month of August, clearly still hampered by the hammy, hitting a meager .164 with only 3 home runs and 4 doubles.
The 26-year-old has shown that he has the 30+ homer upside and we can count on him being among the league leaders in doubles, but he still hasn't reached his ceiling. After being rewarded with a massive contract extension that cements his status as the face of the franchise, Devers is free of distractions and poised for a career year. As long as he can avoid the nagging injuries that contributed to his summer slump last year, Devers has the talent to be among the game's best hitters.
Why we can't lock it in: Is it too simple an explanation to say that Devers might fall short because Aaron Judge still exists? The Yankees slugger demolished the league with 90 extra-base hits during his historic campaign last season. We shouldn't expect a repeat performance and it's noteworthy that Devers tallied more extra-base hits than Judge in each of the previous three seasons. However, it's fair to call Judge the betting favorite entering the season.
Setting aside that there are also several other elite hitters who could challenge for the league lead, Devers faces other challenges that could prevent him from reaching this goal.
The Red Sox lost Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez to free agency, two established stars who typically hit behind Devers in the Red Sox lineup. While Boston has improved in other areas and found suitable replacements, such as Justin Turner, the revamped lineup lacks the star power that strikes fear into opposing pitchers. Until his teammates prove they can get on base ahead of Devers and provide protection behind him, teams could pitch around the star third baseman, daring someone else to beat them.
The Red Sox will capture a Wild Card spot
Why it could happen: Many harp on the fact that the Red Sox finished last in the AL East last season but that meant that they were last in baseball's most competitive division. There were a dozen teams with more losses than the Red Sox, so they were more middle of the pack than the bottom of the barrel.
We can't forget that the Red Sox held the top Wild Card spot in mid-July last year. The loss of Trevor Story in the lineup followed by a rash of injuries that ravaged the pitching staff left the Red Sox spiraling. They finished eight games out of a playoff spot but Boston was still in the hunt entering September and only two AL teams missed the postseason with a better record than the Red Sox.
Boston made significant upgrades to their bullpen, fixing a weakness that cost them several opportunities to win last season. The starting rotation admittedly has some red flags but the improved depth will help them stay afloat when injuries strike.
Letting Bogaerts get away undoubtedly hurts. While there isn't anyone who can replace what Xander brought to the team, the combination of new additions can collectively upgrade the lineup. Masataka Yoshida has the ability to hit for average and get on base. Adam Duvall provides a home run threat this team was missing last year. Justin Turner is a proven veteran run producer.
One of the most notable upgrades is at first base. Red Sox first basemen ranked 14th in the AL with a .210 AVG and 12th with a .369 SLG. The combination of Bobby Dalbec and Franchy Cordero was even more dreadful in the field than they were at the plate. FanGraphs valued Red Sox first baseman at -0.6 WAR. Casas doesn't even need to deliver on the ROY prediction in order to provide a massive upgrade.
Perhaps the greatest advantage the Red Sox will have over last year's team is the balanced schedule being implemented for the 2023 season. Boston went 26-50 against the AL East last season but they had winning records against the other two AL divisions and they were 9-11 in interleague play. The Red Sox will have fewer games against divisional opponents under the revamped schedule. Sure, that will mean facing more of the elite NL teams but they aren't likely to fare any worse against them than they did against the top trio in their own division. Many of the games against the Yankees, Jays, and Rays that are being subtracted from their schedule will be spread out among teams ranging from mediocre to terrible. It would be nearly impossible for the Red Sox to fare worse against those teams than they did against the top AL East teams last year.
Why we can't lock it in: Boston still resides in the ultra-competitive AL East, which probably puts a division title out of reach. If they are going to make the playoffs, it will almost certainly need to be as one of the three Wild Card teams.
Health is always a factor. Boston was derailed by injuries last season and they aren't off to a great start this spring. We still don't know if Story will take the field this season. James Paxton and Garrett Whitlock are among the pitchers dealing with injuries that threaten their availability for Opening Day. Most of the ailments plaguing the roster seem relatively minor and could be in the rear-view mirror by the time we get to May, but can they avoid further catastrophes? It's hard to imagine their injury luck being worse than last season but Boston's margin for error is thinner than it is for most playoff contenders.
The Red Sox have plenty of lingering questions to fuel the doubters but there's also enough talent on this roster to make a playoff run. If the other four predictions come even remotely close to happening, the Red Sox playing meaningful baseball in October might not seem so bold after all.