Astros vs. Red Sox prediction and odds for Monday, August 28 (Bounce back for Sale)

The Red Sox lost two of three to the Dodgers this weekend after their split with Houston last week. The Astros won two of three against the Tigers over the weekend, but is still third in the AL West.
Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale (41)
Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale (41) / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Last week, the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox split a four-game series down in Texas after the Astros took the first two.

Tonight, they’ll begin a three-game set at Fenway Park with Cristian Javier and Chris Sale on the mound. Over the weekend, Houston took two of three from Detroit and is 74-58 while Boston dropped two of three to the Dodgers to fall to 69-62. 

Javier will be making his 25th start of the season for Houston and so far he is 9-2 with a 4.52 ERA in his previous 24 outings.

For Boston, Chris Sale is back on the mound for the 15th time. Sale is 5-3 with a 4.68 ERA and this is his fourth start back from injury. 

At home, the Red Sox are slight favorites in this matchup with the Astros. We’ll get into the odds for this one and I’ll give you my pick. 

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Astros vs. Red Sox odds, run line and total

Astros vs. Red Sox prediction and pick

We’ll get into this pitching matchup, but really this matchup is all about offense.

In August, the Astros are fifth in OPS at .821 and the Red Sox are just one spot back at .801. The Astros have scored 16 more runs than Boston this month as well and now with Jose Abreu back, have their full lineup intact.

Howveer, that may not be great news since Abreu is hitting .146 in his 41 at-bats this month. 

Kyle Tucker has eight home runs in August for Houston and this year has a .982 OPS against lefties like Chris Sale. Houston is No. 2 in OPS against left-handed pitchers this season with 57 home runs which rank third in baseball. 

Chris Sale just faced this lineup and allowed four runs over five innings down in Houston last week. Boston won that matchup 7-5 because of its bats. Javier was not his counterpart in that one, he went two days prior and allowed three runs over five innings against Boston. 

Though their ERA’s are similar, Javier is the much worse pitcher taking the mound tonight. Javier has a 4.73 xERA and has a 15th percentile xSLG of .464.

Sale on the other hand has a 3.71 xERA and ranks in the upper quartile of strikeout rate, whiff rate, chase rate, walk rate, xBA, hard hit rate.

His advanced numbers are excellent and I’ll trust that he’ll pitch more like that guy tonight than he did the last time he faced Houston. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change