A personal shortlist of Red Sox prospect failures

Boston Red Sox baseball is a year-round endeavor at BSI, where Hunter Knoll is the authority on minor league development, where the stars and the fillers for the future rosters are toiling away for a financially rewarding future or the downside of becoming baseball trivia.

Unfortunately, the downside is what I am drifting towards, and players I thought, and most of Red Sox baseball thought would be stars or valuable contributors just tanked. Scouting is not an exact science in any sport, especially trying to project a 17-year-old into the future. How hard is scouting? A great book on the subject is the latest edition of "Dollar Sign On The Muscle."

Projecting MLB talent is a risky venture that sees where once promise flipped and turned to failure. A Triston Casas may appear a failure, and then suddenly, it all clicks, and those scouting reports look spot on. Then, there are the sites that will examine the old-time scouting reports—a great view of hits and misses.

I have limited this to just this century, and even within that time frame, an even more extensive list could be developed.

Four horsemen of the drafting apocalypse

 I will start with the four horsemen of the drafting apocalypse. They have a common connection: they were all number-one draft choices, all were left-handed, and all failed. This was critical to the pitching development failures that followed with trades and expensive free agents to shore up the mess. 

Henry Owens was drafted in 2011 and, in 2015, got his shot with 11 starts. In 2016, Owens started in the rotation, but it didn't pan out, and after just four retched starts, the tall lefty was gone. I saw Owens as a potentially tall Jamie Moyer - so much for that. 

Owens didn't have heat (89.0), had a respectable curve, and could slow down his change (77.2). The issue became a lack of control that was as persistent as mosquitoes on a hot summer night. Even Indy ball was a nightmare, and Owens finally surrendered to poor control. 

Brian Johnson was drafted in 2012 and naturally found the plate to be the size of a postage stamp. Johnson threw with less fastball violence (88.4) than Owens and had a curve and slider - the curve hung, and the slider had no bite. 

Johnson was a head-scratching draft choice, with no spectacular numbers at the University of Florida (Gainsville) and nothing special when I saw him in the Cape Cod Baseball League (CCBL). That question was - I hoped - answered in a game against Seattle in 2017 that was a magical shutout for Johnson—just an illusion.

Jay Groome and Trey Ball never reached Boston, although Groome still hangs on in the Padres system. Neither were hard throwers and masters of control. Both were tall, so the assumption was the Red Sox would form an NBA team. 

All four were at one juncture among the top prospects in the Boston system on prospect watch. 

Alex Gordon redux - Garin Cecchini

In the 2010 draft, the Red Sox got an absolute steal in the fourth round with the drafting of lefty-hitting Garin Cecchini. As noted in the scouting reports, Cecchini tore through the system and had all the tools. Speed was there, bat control, gap power, good defense, work to be done, but when I saw him play, all I could see was our version of KC great Alex Gordon. 

"Summation: Future regular, everyday, solid contributor. Left-handed hitter with an above-average hit tool and plate discipline to draw walks and generate high on-base totals. Still needs to prove he can handle advanced left-handed pitching. Positional flexibility to play third base and left field, but needs to improve footwork and defensive tools. Plus-plus instincts, make-up and eagerness to learn. High baseball IQ; knows exactly what he needs to do." Sox Prospects

Cecchini came up for a taste in 2014 and hit .258 in 11 games. In 2015, Cecchini had another brief roster recall hitting zip in two games. At Pawtucket in 2015, Cecchini looked lost hitting .213 and the Sox saw enough and Cecchini was gone. 

That started the downward spiral that eventually led Cecchini to the Mexican League and then retirement at 26 years old. What happened is a mystery as the fast-track promise became stuck in a cycle of failure. 

The mystery of the Cecchini clan did not end with Garin, as he had a younger brother, Gavin, drafted in the first round by the Mets. Gavin appeared in 36 MLB games, hitting .217 before retiring in 2017. 

Closer of the future - Craig Hansen

The Red Sox needed a closer for the future and drafted Craig Hansen in the first round of the 2006 draft. Hansen was 6'6" and had a killer heater and a hard-breaking slider.

I saw Hansen in the Cape Cod League, and it was pure, OMG, how can you hit this guy? That CCL season, Hansen did not allow an earned run that season, and after his junior year at St. John's, he was signed to a massive contract by Boston.

Hansen's Boston career was disappointing, and that is an absolute understatement. Hansen appeared on the right track at Pawtucket in 2008, and the few times I saw him, it appeared he had put it together, but that was an illusion. Hansen was soon shipped to Pittsburgh, and the change in scenery did nothing.

What happened? Hansen was diagnosed with brachial plexus neuropathy that caused nerve numbness, and that explained why his BB/9 was in the ionosphere and that heater was suddenly listless.

For the Red Sox, all was not lost since Jonathan Papelbon emerged to solidify the closer role for several seasons. For Hansen, his career disappeared primarily via injury, but what could have been was 300+ career saves.

Top of the rotation - Anthony Ranaudo

The Cape Cod Baseball League is a great place to see future stars, and I have already listed a few players I saw perform in that high-level wooded bat league. Now for another one and another first-round pick.

Anthony Ranaudo went with a 0.00 ERA in CCBLin 29.2 innings in 2010, which carried over when he entered the Boston system. The 6'7" righty climbed through the system, and the next I saw of Ranaudo was with Pawtucket in 2014. On his way to the PawSox, Ranaudo was regularly selected to All-Star teams, and the record showed he might be an impact starter at the MLB level.

Ranaudo had a history of elbow issues late in college that impacted his position in the draft since many considered him a possible top-ten selection.

Ranaudo was not overpowering but had a four-pitch toolbox, but at the MLB level, the flaws became apparent. In the minors, swing-and-miss, stuff became whack-a-mole in the majors. In 86 MLB innings, Ranaudo posted an identical 4.6 BB/9 and 4.6 K/9. The small sample also showed a 2.3 HR/9.

Ranaudo moved on to Texas, White Sox, and Korea with the same poor results and was done. I watched him toss a 14-4 season at Pawtucket and dominate the International League. A lock? Afraid no