5 prospects the Boston Red Sox shouldn't trade this offseason
The Boston Red Sox are watching the 2024 playoffs from home, meaning this is the third straight season without a postseason appearance for the historic franchise.
The team took positive steps forward this year, though. There are clear building blocks on the roster. However, they must make moves to be serious World Series contenders in 2025 (and beyond). Those moves can be made in free agency, but the Red Sox might need to pull off some trades to bolster the roster as well.
Lucky for Boston, the organization is stacked with minor-league talent to use as bargaining chips in those trades. Not everyone should be on the table, though. We'll review the system and find five prospects the Red Sox shouldn't trade this offseason.
Any move that could make the team better needs to be considered after the Sox have missed the playoffs in five out of the last six seasons. No prospect is 100% untouchable, but there are a lot of prospects that should only be moved for the right price. We also need to keep in mind that they need to be realistic moves. The Red Sox aren't about to get Tarik Skubal or Shohei Ohtani this offseason.
To narrow the list, we're only going to talk about one of the top names in the "Big Three." The Red Sox don't seem all that likely to move their top 100 prospects.
5 prospects the Boston Red Sox shouldn't trade this offseason
Marcelo Mayer - SS
Marcelo Mayer is the top prospect we felt needed to be on this list. The shortstop put up massive numbers in Double-A, leading to a promotion to Triple-A early in August.
Sadly, Mayer didn't get a chance to play in Worcester this season. An injury kept him out of action since July 31. Unsurprisingly, this didn't help the injury-prone allegations.
However, we still don't think this is something people should worry about too much. Mayer is one of the top prospects in baseball. The team is going to put him in bubble wrap. Any injury is going to get him shut down. If he were in the Majors, he would've been playing. But they wanted him to go into the offseason 100% healthy and best prepared for 2025, especially after last season.
The left-handed hitting shortstop slashed .307/.370/.480 with 28 doubles and eight home runs in 77 games in Double-A. He posted 38 RBI, 60 runs, and 13 steals. Mayer brought back all the hype that was surrounding him in early 2023. The injury stalled some of the excitement among the fanbase, though. Suddenly, Mayer went from being the future franchise shortstop to someone many fans wanted to trade.
Yes, the Red Sox will need to make trades, and Mayer is a piece that could bring back a good return. Not only that, but he plays a position of depth in the Boston organization. All the signs point to Mayer being a decent trade candidate, especially for pitching help.
But here's why it shouldn't happen. The return would be good, but it wont be the best it can be due to the injury concerns. Mayer will start 2025 in Triple-A. He should be 100% following a full offseason (which he didn't get last year). Let him cook in Worcester for a few months. That will give the Red Sox two options. They can call Mayer up to be the team's new franchise shortstop, or they can trade him while his stock is astronomical and land a hefty return.
Right now, Mayer would be able to land Boston an ace if he was in a package with other big pieces. A Mayer with a strong start in 2025 wouldn't need much accompanying him to get the Red Sox the pitcher they need, though.
Ideally, the Red Sox keep Mayer to be part of a ridiculous core of young talent. But if they have to move him, wait until his stock is where we all know it can get to.
Yordanny Monegro - RHP
Yordanny Monegro is going to be in plenty of discussions this offseason. He needs to be put on the 40-man roster to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. That is where trading him might come into play for fans making trade proposals on Twitter. However, Monegro likely doesn't even need to be protected.
The right-hander enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2023. In 2024, he only improved his stock. It's possible he's the best healthy pitching prospect in the Red Sox system (an injured Luis Perales being the only arm we'd put ahead of him).
The right-handed pitcher posted a 2.73 ERA. .176 BAA, and a 1.03 WHIP in 15 appearances (14 starts) in High-A. He struck out 82 batters compared to 26 walks in 66 innings.
Due to an injury, Monegro didn't make his first High-A start of the season until June 2. After returning, it took him a bit to find his footing and regain the confidence and swagger that he is well known for. Once it returned, Monegro was a force. The 21-year-old enjoyed a stretch where he didn't allow an earned run for 45 straight innings.
So, why shouldn't he be traded?
Monegro isn't that far away from the Majors. He'll start next season in Double-A, meaning there's a world (however unlikely it is) where Monegro's in the Major Leagues before the end of the 2025 campaign.
At the same time, he doesn't necessarily need to be added to the 40-man roster. Monegro hasn't pitched above High-A yet (likely because the Red Sox were trying to make it easier to protect him). No GM that wants to keep their job will bring in someone with zero experience above High-A and throw them on the team's Opening Day roster. There's an extremely slim chance Monegro is selected in the Rule 5 draft.
Finally, the fact that he hasn't pitched above High-A also hurts his trade stock. Pitching prospects have massive outcome differentials. Very few can be guaranteed studs like Paul Skenes. Usually, you don't even know if someone will stick as a starter.
With that in mind, a team isn't going to view someone who hasn't pitched in Double-A yet as someone with much value. Monegro would be a "lesser" piece in a trade. That isn't the value that Boston should be selling on.
For the last few years, we've heard plenty about how the Red Sox don't have starting pitching prospects. Yordanny Monegro is one of the most exciting arms in the system. Why trade him now?
Miguel Bleis - OF
Miguel Bleis is still seen by many as a serious part of the future of the Red Sox. He's a right-handed hitting outfielder in a land filled with left-handed hitting prospects.
Bleis entered 2023 as a top-100 prospect. He flashed that great potential in Single-A but only appeared in 31 games before an injury ended his season. The 2024 season was a chance for Bleis to reclaim his status as one of the best prospects in baseball. He started the year in Single-A and brought back the excitement. In mid-June, Bleis was promoted to High-A, but he struggled there, hitting .190 in 52 games.
Overall, the year was a positive. Bleis slashed .220/.303/.354 with 16 doubles, one triple, and 11 home runs between Single-A and High-A. He had 47 RBI, 56 runs, and 38 steals.
Bleis could be brought up in trade talks this year as a prospect playing a crowded position for Boston. We could tell you it's not smart to trade Bleis because his trade value is low following poor numbers in High-A. Instead, though, we're going to tell you it's not smart to trade Bleis because the idea of him is too intriguing.
The 20-year-old has all the tools. Bleis has elite speed and is an elite defender in center field. His power potential is legit, and he's improving in important areas.
Bleis saw his walk rate rise in 2024 while his strikeout rate dropped. Meanwhile, the strikeout rate barely saw a bump after his promotion to High-A. He wasn't struggling to make contact, and was hitting the ball hard. The only real issue was a high number of pop-ups. For the most part, Bleis was doing all the right things.
With a few manageable tweaks this offseason, Bleis will be primed for a massive 2025. That would make him a much more tantalizing trade chip. However, it would also put him in a position to find his way onto the Major League roster in 2026.
There are a large range of outcomes for Bleis. Very few prospects have the ceiling he has, though. Giving up on him before he can legally drink in America feels like the wrong choice.
Nelly Taylor - OF
Nelly Taylor became a must-watch prospect for us in 2024. The 2023 11th-round draft pick started the year in Single-A with the Salem Red Sox. While there, Taylor routinely made outstanding plays in the outfield. Taylor was no slouch with the bat, either. The left-handed hitter slashed .228/.336/.358 with 24 doubles, three triples, and six home runs with Salem. He posted 46 RBI, 69 runs, and 31 steals.
Those numbers might not jump out at you, but Salem is a notoriously unfriendly park for hitters. It felt like Taylor would flourish once he was promoted to High-A.
With two weeks left in the season, that promotion came. Taylor only appeared in 10 games for Greenville, but he certainly made a point. The 21-year-old went 11-for-38 (.289) with two doubles, one triple, and two home runs. He drove in eight runs, scored five more, and stole two bases.
Here's our pitch. Taylor's not a big-name prospect. He's not going to get the Red Sox a good return unless he's just another name in a trade featuring a few high-end prospects. There's no benefit to trading him right now.
Meanwhile, we believe he has a chance to be the prospect with the most helium in 2025. We saw a glimpse of what Taylor could do with the bat once he left Salem. His speed is plus-plus, and his defense is elite. If the bat keeps improving, the Red Sox have something serious in him.
Boston has plenty of outfield prospects who possess great defense. Taylor is in a league of his own, though. He has Ceddanne-Rafaela-level potential when it comes to the glove. Taylor was recognized for this defense.
Salem manager Liam Carroll highlighted Taylor as one of the team leaders (along with Juan Montero) on the Pesky Report podcast. Multiple people within the organization spoke incredibly highly of Taylor to me. The hype is there. It's not something that would translate to trade value, though.
His only real negative was that he wasn't using any Nelly songs as his walk-up music in Salem (although he made the move when he got to Greenville).
In all, losing Taylor would be crushing. Losing Taylor as a throw-in of a trade to see him turn into a legitimate name in 2025 would crush all of Red Sox Nation. Few Boston prospects have the helium potential of Nelly Taylor next year. Don't move him before seeing what he's got in his bag.
Franklin Arias - SS
Franklin Arias would've been the breakout prospect of Boston's system in 2024 if it weren't for Kristian Campbell (and maybe Jhostynxon Garcia).
The right-handed hitting shortstop tore through the FCL before slashing .257/.331/.378 with nine doubles and three home runs in Single-A. He drove in 26 runs, scored 18 more, and stole five bases in 36 games.
We just mentioned how difficult hitting at Salem is. Go back and look at Roman Anthony's numbers in Single-A. Allan Castro is another example of this. The stats didn't reflect what they were doing with the bat. They were promoted to High-A and immediately saw their stats take off. Similarly, Arias put up numbers that would be considered solid at any level while being one of the youngest players in Single-A and playing at a pitcher-friendly park.
The Red Sox made it obvious that they think highly of the 18-year-old. Arias played a majority of his time at shortstop (with a little second base mixed in) and exclusively hit leadoff. As far as players in Single-A go, Arias would get a better return than almost anyone else. However, the return will jump exponentially even by the 2025 trade deadline.
That's not the only reason to keep Arias, though. He profiles as someone who can stay at shortstop. He has legitimate pop and good speed. Arias even won the Red Sox MiLB baserunner of the year. Boston has plenty of young talent in the Majors and even more exciting talent in the minor league system. The big issue fans seem to point to is the lack of right-handed hitting, and Arias can help there too.
The Major League roster was loaded with left-handed hitters. Boston's minor league system isn't much different. Kristian Campbell hits from the right side. However, Roman Anthony, Kyle Teel, Marcelo Mayer, Mikey Romero, and more hit lefty. Two of those names are shortstops.
It wouldn't hurt the Red Sox to keep some of their top-tier right-handed hitting prospects. Arias saw his stock rise massively in 2024 and is now widely considered a top-100 prospect in baseball. Imagine what he can do in 2025.
Boston trading him this offseason would be selling him at what will likely be the lowest his trade value will ever be again.