5 prospects the Boston Red Sox need to avoid trading this offseason
The Boston Red Sox have some new front office names. With that, expect to see some prospects on the move as the team looks to improve it's MLB roster. Which names should they avoid moving, though?
The Boston Red Sox have a new name on top, with Craig Breslow officially a part of the organization. It's safe to assume that the new man in charge is going to want to make some moves.
The Red Sox minor league system is overflowing with talent. However, there are glaring holes on the Major League roster. That would lead you to believe that Breslow and co. might want to ship off some of that MiLB talent for legitimate MLB names.
Which prospects should be safe from any Boston Red Sox trades this offseason?
Full disclaimer: no prospect should be completely off limits. There is a price for everyone, prospects are too risky to bet everything on, and the front office would be doing a disservice to the team to not at least listen. That being said, there are some names that the Red Sox should avoid trading this offseason. Sure, if the Atlanta Braves call you and say, "We want this guy for Ronald Acuña Jr." you do that. We're looking at realistic trades here, though.
Boston won't be able to keep everyone. I'd love for them to hold on to Roman Anthony with their life. But I understand his stock is at a ridiculous level right now. And with that stock, you could trade him for a legitimate star without throwing anything else in the deal. So, it technically makes sense to trade him while his stock is through the roof.
We'll be looking at prospects that the Red Sox shouldn't trade for reasons such as lower-than-usual stock and positional needs. I was told, "Don't trade everyone and let's make an all-prospect team as I do in the Show every year." wasn't a good enough answer for this article, so let's give it a crack this way.
Kyle Teel - C
The Boston Red Sox haven't had a franchise catcher in years. There's a strong argument that the last time they were 100% set at the position for the foreseeable future was Jason Varitek.
Kyle Teel gives the Red Sox their best chance at another one. He was their first-round draft pick in 2023 and has already exceeded expectations.
Teel slashed .363/.482/.495 with six doubles and two home runs between Rookie Ball, High-A, and Double-A. He drove in 22 runs, scored 15 more, and stole three bases in 26 games (91 at-bats) between the three levels.
Most impressively, the left-handed hitting catcher walked nearly as many times (21) as he struck out (22).
So, the bat is there. But what about his defense? Well, Teel was drafted with the profile of a defense-first catcher. The offense was never a negative, but I don't think people were expecting this out of him.
Teel has a fantastic arm and is showcasing elite pop times. He's looked great behind the plate and appears to already be a leader who is going to help the pitching staff.
The Boston Red Sox are still in a weird spot with their catchers. Connor Wong is solid, but are they comfortable with him as a long-term option?
Kyle Teel has the potential to be a generational talent at catcher. He's already proven himself for a few weeks in Double-A (in his first season in the minor leagues). So it's not like this is just raw potential in Single-A that you're hoping can translate to the Majors.
There's a small chance we see Teel in Boston by the end of next year. That's how close he is to the Major Leagues. You don't trade away a catcher like Kyle Teel. How few truly elite catchers do we see in baseball? Don't let one slip through your fingers.
Marcelo Mayer - SS
Marcelo Mayer is the top prospect in the Boston Red Sox system. That feels like enough of a reason to avoid trading him.
We didn't want to just go with the top names in the organization, though. What would be the fun in rattling off the top five and leaving it at that? Each player needed to have a reason more than just "they're good."
That's why Anthony isn't on here. He has a chance to be a generational talent, but if we went with the "he's so good it would suck to trade him" defense, that wouldn't be worth writing. There should be reasons. Mayer has the perfect reason.
Marcelo Mayer is still one of the top prospects in baseball. However, he struggled mightily after being promoted to Double-A last season. We've since learned that he suffered an injury (which kept him out a week) in High-A. That injury never really healed properly. Mayer tried to play through it, and it led to a slump.
Even with the extended slump in Double-A before he was officially shelved for the season, Mayer put up solid numbers. The left-handed hitting shortstop slashed .236/.306/.433 with 19 doubles, two triples, and 13 home runs between High-A and Double-A. He drove in 54 runs, scored 43 more, and stole nine bases in 78 games (314 at-bats).
Those are solid numbers for a 20-year-old who spent over half his season in Double-A. Factor in that he was playing injured, and you shouldn't be worried at all.
That being said, it leads to a weird stop in his travels to the Major Leagues. Marcelo Mayer is still one of the very best prospects in all of baseball. However, the Boston Red Sox minor league shortstop hasn't seen his stock lower.
Why move him now? Mayer is in a prime position for a bounce-back season, just like Nick Yorke was last year. When that bounceback happens, he'll either find his way to the Majors (or set himself up perfectly for 2025), or he'll be an extremely marketable trade chip for a superstar.
If the Red Sox wanted to trade Mayer now, he'd be the main piece in a trade for a big name. Imagine how much higher his value will be when he's not coming off a down year that saw his season end early due to injury.
Besides the trade value, you have your franchise player at a premium position. Why would you want to trade that?
Luis Perales - SP
The Boston Red Sox have more pitching prospects than they get credit for. To be fair, not a lot of their top arms are working in Double-A and Triple-A at the moment.
Their best pitching prospect is knocking on the Double-A door, though. Luis Perales has electric stuff. He possesses a dominant fastball and some intriguing offspeed pitches (including a curveball and a changeup).
The right-handed pitcher posted a 3.91 ERA, .230 BAA, and 1.42 WHIP between Single-A and High-A. He struck out 115 batters compared to 50 walks in 89 2/3 innings.
Perales doesn't turn 21 until April 14. The advanced pitch repertoire and ability to miss bats at his age are absolutely terrifying.
It's tough to put pitchers under Double-A on any list like this. You can't really evaluate a pitcher properly as a Major League prospect in Single-A and High-A. Look at how many pitchers run through hitters at those levels before hitting major roadblocks in Double-A and Triple-A.
There are far too many inexperienced hitters who aren't MLB talents at those levels. Hitters that you can put away with ease if you have good enough stuff. But when you get to higher levels, just having a filthy pitch isn't going to let an arm dominate anymore.
With that in mind, I could only go with one pitcher below Double-A. We went with Perales because he's got the highest ceiling and is knocking on that Double-A door. Yordanny Monegro deserves a shoutout here as well, though.
The Boston Red Sox have a few intriguing pitching prospects in their system. Luis Perales is the ace of the bunch, however. If one of them is going to turn into the best pitcher in baseball, it feels like Perales right now.
This is a constant point made in Boston media. The Red Sox have not had a homegrown stud pitcher since Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. Brayan Bello is at that point now, but he's barely played a season, so it's fair to want more.
Luis Perales gives Boston a shot at another from-the-farm ace. Let him cook.
Wikelman Gonzalez - SP
Wikelman Gonzalez is an intriguing prospect. If it wasn't for Yordanny Monegro, I'd say Gonzalez has the best curveball from a prospect I've seen in years. He started the year slow but ended up making his way to Double-A and dominating there (even being part of a no-hitter).
Gonzalez features a filthy pitch mix that helps him rack up strikeouts. He looked untouchable for a large portion of the season. The only real setback with him at the moment is the uncertainty with his control.
Gonzalez posted a 3.96 ERA, .190 BAA, and 1.31 WHIP between High-A and Double-A. The right-handed pitcher struck out 168 batters compared to 70 walks in 111 1/3 innings. His numbers are even better if you don't count that miserable first month he had.
Gonzalez was elite in Double-A (2.42 ERA, .162 BAA, and 1.14 WHIP).
Perales has the highest ceiling. Monegro is the most electric. But Gonzalez is a beautiful mix of both. And why does he get the nod over Monegro on this list? Gonzalez has already proven himself in Double-A.
That experience goes a long way. Does it make him a better trade chip? Absolutely. But it also makes him more valuable to the future of the Red Sox.
See, the reason he's more valuable as a trade chip is because he's proven that he can dominate in Double-A. It's hard to take a pitcher's numbers seriously in the lower levels. Gonzalez has shown he can make advanced hitters look foolish.
And what's something that people have argued is a weakness in the Boston farm system? Pitching that's close to the Major Leagues. We've already seen Gonzalez terrorize Double-A for 48 1/3 innings. Not only will we see him in Triple-A, but it's not unrealistic that he could find his way to the Majors in 2024.
Brayan Bello is a fantastic long-term piece for a pitching rotation. The Red Sox could be adding Wikelman Gonzalez to the mix soon.
Miguel Bleis - OF
We're going for the Marcelo Mayer argument with Miguel Bleis, except we're turning it up to 11.
Miguel Bleis came into the 2023 season with unreal levels of hype. He crushed the FCL in 2022 and was primed for big things, starting the new season in Single-A.
Bleis started hot. The hype looked real following a three-hit game on May 10. That's when things went off the rails. Bleis would suffer an injury in the next game. After missing two weeks, he attempted to come back. Four games later, his season was over.
The right-handed hitter slashed .230/.282/.325 with three doubles, three triples, and one home run in 31 games (126 at-bats). Bleis drove in 16 runs, scored 18 more, and stole 11 bases.
So Bleis came into 2023 as this Pablo Sanchez-type prospect. He was a phenomenal hitter with plenty of power potential. Don't forget fantastic defense, a great arm, and elite speed.
A mediocre slash line and a season-ending injury have worked together to lessen the hype. It also doesn't help Bleis that the Red Sox saw some new prospects jump on the tracks of their hype trains (like Roman Anthony, Kyle Teel, and Yordanny Monegro).
Bleis is still 19, and he'll be 20 for all of next season. But some fans have cooled off on him a bit. I get it. The stock is lower.
And that's where we get to our point. Bleis is still this unreal talent. However, he now has all these things going against him.
He had low production. But he was also a teenager playing in Salem, a ballpark that does no one favors. Go ahead and look at Anthony's numbers in Single-A this year. The same goes for Allan Castro. It's not a ballpark for hitters.
He's coming off an injury. Let him prove he can get healthy before making any decisions. A healthy season alone would raise his stock.
Finally, he was only in Single-A. Even as a top-rated prospect, you're not going to get the best possible return out of someone so low in the minor leagues.
The Boston Red Sox would be selling low(ish) on someone like Marcelo Mayer after last season. They would be selling negligently low on Miguel Bleis. He'll likely make his way to High-A at some point in 2024. As the Greenville Drive love to say, let him cook.
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