5 prospects Boston Red Sox fans should prepare to lose in the Rule 5 Draft
A strong farm system is a great thing 99 out of 100 times. The one time it hurts is during the Rule 5 Draft. With such a good prospect pool, the Boston Red Sox can't protect everyone. So who should fans expect to see leave the organization soon?
Which prospects should Boston Red Sox fans expect to lose in the Rule 5 Draft?
The Boston Red Sox have done an incredible job rebuilding their farm system over the last few seasons.
They now have some top-end talent with legitimate potential to become superstars in the Major Leagues. There's plenty of depth to find some hidden gems as well. And, of course, some phenomenal trade chips should they choose to go after veteran talent on other teams.
However, there is a negative to all of this. The Rule 5 Draft is coming up. For those who don't know, here's the SparkNotes version of the Rule 5 Draft. Teams take players not on the 40-man rosters of other teams.
And with the Red Sox holding on to so much talent in the minor leagues, the likelihood they lose someone (or multiple someones) in the draft is high.
With that in mind, it feels wise that fans brace themselves for this to happen. Don't expect Boston to come out of the Rule 5 Draft with all of the same prospects still on the roster.
Who could be gone, though? Well, we have a slightly better idea with the Red Sox adding Luis Perales and Wikelman Gonzalez to their 40-man roster. It means they wanted to protect them from the other teams. However, it also gives us an idea of who they aren't as worried about.
It's important to remember that players taken in this draft need to be on the team's Major League roster, or they could be sent back to their original team (like what happened to Noah Song).
With that in mind, teams shouldn't be too worried about hitters not in Triple-A. At the same time, pitchers not in Double-A or higher are likely safe. A low-end team could take a chance on a pitcher far from the Majors and stash them in the bullpen, but it's a risky move. So, it's safe to assume the players in the most danger of being selected are pitchers or any prospect in Triple-A.
Let's take a look at five prospects that could have new homes following the Rule 5 Draft.
Boston Red Sox starting pitching prospect Shane Drohan
It feels like we should get the most obvious one out of the way first. Shane Drohan started 2023 in an absurdly dominant fashion. He breezed through Double-A in a few weeks and spent the rest of the season in Triple-A.
There, the left-handed pitcher struggled. However, he showed flashes of his brilliance on several occasions.
Drohan finished the season with a 5.05 ERA, .260 BAA, and 158 WHIP between Double-A and Triple-A. The 24-year-old (who will turn 25 in January) struck out 129 batters compared to 72 walks in 123 innings.
Walks became an issue in Triple-A, as did home runs (19 of his 20 HRs allowed were with Worcester). His newfound velocity may have had something to do with the control problems that plagued Drohan as the season went on.
The struggles led to the Red Sox never calling him up. And apparently, it was enough that they didn't feel the need to protect him. Even with the rough Triple-A numbers, Drohan is an interesting arm with a decent amount of innings at the level.
Due to that, it's hard to envision no team snatching him up. Thad Ward was an early pick last season, and he wasn't as highly regarded as Drohan is now.
The Red Sox actually had an extra spot open on the 40-man roster when they placed Luis Perales and Wikelman Gonzalez on there. The fact that they left Drohan off felt ominous. You could argue that it means they aren't too worried about him getting picked up. That feels like a fool's wish, though.
The more likely case is that Boston has other plans for the 40-man roster. And they feel losing Drohan is a necessary evil.
This one is too obvious. A left-handed pitcher who dominated Double-A and twirled some gems in Triple-A isn't getting through the Rule 5 Draft unclaimed.
Boston Red Sox relief pitching prospect Ryan Fernandez
It stands to reason that if a team takes a pitcher in the Rule 5 Draft, they'll likely, at the very least, start the year in the bullpen. If they were ready to be full-time starters in the Majors, it's hard to imagine their original team wouldn't have held on to them somehow.
That might give Ryan Fernandez an advantage (or disadvantage if you're looking at it from Boston's perspective). A time might find him extra enticing as he's already a proven reliever in the minor leagues. They know he can make it work out of the bullpen.
The right-handed reliever posted a 4.14 ERA, .254 BAA, and 1.31 WHIP between Single-A, Double-A, and Triple-A. He struck out 67 batters compared to 18 walks in 54 1/3 innings.
Fernandez was lights-out in Single-A and Double-A. Meanwhile, he was impressive in Triple-A outside of two rough performances.
I also got the privilege of seeing him live a few times. Between Fernandez, Luis Guerrero, and Christopher Troye, I don't understand how anyone got a hit off of Portland's bullpen in 2023. Those three look like cheat codes on the mound when you're there live.
Fernandez is only 25 and has now had experience in Triple-A. While his numbers at the level don't look particularly exciting, he was impressive for the most part. It's hard to go off of stats with relievers because one or two bad outings blow up their ERA, WHIP, and all that fun stuff.
A lot of people would tell you that Ryan Fernandez could help the Red Sox this season and has a shot to make the Opening Day roster. It's hard to imagine the other 29 teams not thinking he could make an impact in their bullpen, as well.
Boston Red Sox starting pitching prospect Grant Gambrell
Grant Gambrell needed a big season in 2023, but things started rough in High-A. However, a few great starts at the beginning of May led to a call-up to Double-A. There, Gambrell thrived.
The right-handed pitcher dominated for three months, leading to another promotion. Then, in two starts in Triple-A, Gambrell continued to dazzle.
Gambrell finished the 2023 season with a 3.63 ERA, .236 BAA, and 1.26 WHIP between the three levels. He struck out 134 batters compared to 46 walks in 126 1/3 innings.
Gambrell came over in the deal with Josh Winckowski and others. However, injuries and other health scares led to him not pitching in 2022 after appearing in eight games for the Red Sox organization in 2021.
Due to that, Gambrell was pretty far behind. He was a 25-year-old in High-A at the start of the year. Now 26 (just had a birthday on November 21), Gambrell ran through Double-A and made his way to Triple-A. He had two fantastic starts before the end of the season there.
The Red Sox pushing him up through the levels could have to do with his age and Boston wanting to challenge him. However, it could also be a case that they saw something in him.
If they did see something in Gambrell, couldn't other teams have seen it as well? He's now proven himself in Double-A and flourished in his small taste of Triple-A. Gambrell's old enough that a team would feel like they are rushing a prospect, and his 2023 numbers certainly do him some favors.
Grant Gambrell began working on a cutter in Spring Training of 2023. It got better as the year went on and could be the thing he was missing to make him a great pitcher.
Teams might be enticed by his clear progressions last season and feel it's worth it to take a chance on him in 2024.
Boston Red Sox starting pitching prospect Brian Van Belle
Brian Van Belle was phenomenal in Double-A for the first half of the season. His fantastic numbers led to a promotion to Triple-A. There, Van Belle struggled for the most part.
However, there were some positives. Van Belle managed to put together some great outings in 13 appearances for Worcester. And while his walks did go up at the level, it wasn't nearly the spike that we've seen with other pitchers recently. For the most part, Van Belle didn't let the walks kill him.
BVB posted a 4.46 ERA, .260 BAA, and 1.35 WHIP in 27 appearances (25 starts) between Double-A and Triple-A. The right-handed pitcher struck out 134 batters compared to 50 walks in 141 1/3 innings.
Van Belle came into the Red Sox organization as an undrafted free agent in 2020. In 2021, he started his career by putting up a solid season in High-A.
That right there started my campaign for the University of Miami product. In his three seasons in the minor leagues, BVB has never put up eye-popping numbers. However, he's always been a consistent arm in the rotation. Simply put, if you need 5-plus innings, you want Van Belle out there.
The fact that he took a step forward in 2023 only makes his case stronger. Van Belle overpowered in Double-A. Now, with over 60 innings in Triple-A, BVB could leap to the Majors at any time.
Could another team see Brian Van Belle as a potential back-end of the rotation guy? He seems like a great arm for a team with serious pitching problems. Have him as your five who will eat innings and twirl some gems on occasion. Could he improve from there as time goes on? We saw BVB take steps forward after getting acclimated to each level so far. So, if it's a team that can afford to be patient with him, it could pay off.
Boston Red Sox catching prospect Stephen Scott
Oh, look, everyone, it's a wild card entry! Back in the first slide (remember back then a few minutes ago?) I said that this would be pitcher-heavy. However, that didn't mean it would be strictly pitchers.
Funny enough, the only non-pitcher on this list is one of the players fans should be most fearful of losing. When he entered the organization in 2019, Stephen Scott was a fun power potential bat who could play a few positions.
Then, in 2021, Scott started appearing in games as a catcher. In 2022, Scott was strictly a catcher (not counting games where he was the designated hitter).
Scott appeared in 12 games at first base in 2023, but the majority of his time in the field (62 games) was spent as a catcher.
Scott showed a strange pattern his first few seasons in the minor leagues. He would struggle to start the year and perform better after being promoted. In 2023, he played slightly better in Double-A than Triple-A, but even that was extremely close.
The left-handed hitter slashed .235/.350/.462 with 16 doubles, two triples, and 19 home runs (career-high) between Double-A and Triple-A. He drove in 66 runs, scored 59 more, and stole six bases in 100 games (340 at-bats).
Scott isn't known for his defense behind the plate. That being said, he's still relatively new to the position. Even in college, it wasn't a full-time position for him. Scott is improving as a catcher, and if he can become passable behind the plate, the bat is more than worth it.
Scott has the power and eye to be a strong offensive catcher. He has decent athleticism for the position and has sneaky speed on the basepaths. His defensive versatility allows a team to place him at first base or potentially in a corner outfield spot if needed.
It would hurt the Red Sox to lose such an intriguing catching depth option in Triple-A. But catcher is a weak position around the league, and quite a few teams might be interested in Scott's offensive talents.