According to MLB, the Boston Red Sox farm system is trending north and now ranks seventh in the league. The influx of talent has been a tease, with more presumably on the way. But there are few pitchers in the mix down on the farm.
If money was no object, and it is now apparently to management, it would go into the deep end of the free agency pool and get the latest David Price to shore up that little bump until the next Brian Johnson or Henry Owens arrives. From those lacking patience, you shop around for that up-in-light controllable pitcher, which means trade.
You do not trade a rubber bat for a wooden arm; you do the opposite, which brings us to who goes. The Red Sox will not scoop up Garrett Crochet for Rob Refsnyder. The reality is value for value, and just who would entice a semi-lucid GM to part with value pitching? Who would Justin Hollander, Chris Getz, or Peter Bendix want?
The Red Sox have plenty of options to trade for elite pitching this offseason
Legacy Player
The story begins with how good Ceddanne Rafaela is, with the catch being just how good he can be. The first thing, as always, is the offensive statistics, and certain things jump out in a bad way. With a 3.2 BB% and a 24.5 K% and getting into the metrics, Rafaela is not one to avoid a pitch he believes is anywhere near the strike zone. Sometimes, a Rafaela at-bat is painful to watch, but the positive is he lives for the moment and not the past.
He hits about equally against lefties and righties at home and on the road. If you are into trends, the second half has Rafaela tipping the batting scales at .300+. Rafaela is also a burner on the basepaths but, unfortunately, is often burned with getting nabbed eight times in 25 attempts. As with hitting, it is a learning process.
Rafaela is a Gold Glove candidate at the outfield and shortstop positions, but what about those defensive metrics? Rafaela has a 6.9 UZR/150 on picket duty and nine Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Short is a surprise. A -7 DRS and a -22.2 UZR/150? The other night against the Astros, I saw Rafaela make two plays at shortstop, which I had not seen since Orlando Cabrera was in town. In the center, this is Coco Crisp in his Boston days.
Rafaela has an eight-year deal that absorbs arbitration and a chip of free agency. Rafaela may not be Mookie Betts, but he has the same ability level, and it is just about baseball maturity. As a trade, he would be my prime target if I sat in a GM chair elsewhere, but that price would be staggering.
Power Plus
Triston Casas is a quirky fellow who would be a good subject for a quote or an article on the lifestyles of iconoclast baseball players. He is not quite the Bill Walton of baseball, but give him time.
Casas' calling card is power, and the power can be devastating — authentic statcast material. The beauty is the power is to all fields, and the right field at Fenway Park is no obstacle to watching fly balls die a slow death at the warning track.
This season has been a nightmare for the 24-year-old lefty after his months on the shelf with a rib cartilage injury, but despite his absence, the Red Sox offense has rolled along. More was expected after a 2023 season that saw Casas hit 24 home runs and bag 65 RBI. Casas is a patient young man with a BB% approaching double the league average.
Defensively, Casas is best described as routinely solid. He's is no Doug Mientkiewicz but a far distance from the iron glove of Dick Stuart. Looking in the rearview mirror, the Red Sox had a similar first baseman who took three years to develop, and Casas may experience a Mo Vaughn trajectory.
The Red Sox survived without Casas, and some possible infield shifting could stabilize the position — Rafael Devers as a thought. With the infield logjam, the options exist to move chess pieces around. Whatever the Red Sox decide to do, Casas will be under team control through 2028.
Five Tool Player
The wait for Jarren Duran is now over. The 2023 season was not a fluke but an appetizer; this season has been a five-star meal at a Michelin-rated restaurant. If there was a way of dominating a game, Duran found it.
Duran may finish the 2024 season, leading the American League in doubles, triples, and steals. Home run power is in the mix, just ask the Astros about that.
Duran needed an essential ingredient in the five-tool mix — defense. That part of the equation has been solved this season, as Duran has nailed a 14 DRS and scooted to a plus in the UZR/150 department.
A few years back, I wrote an article about prospect Duran, who I compared potentially to Jacoby Ellsbury. Duran made me look like the BSI's resident bonehead for a few years, but now Nostradamus.
Duran is now 27 years old and has finally put it all together despite issues with anxiety, depression, and a mouth that draws a two-game suspension. For Boston, Duran is under the team's control until he is 32, so a contract discussion is optional. Duran will clean up in arbitration anyway, so no GoFundMe is necessary. But if he goes?
Boston has Rafaela for now, and just down the road, there are a plethora of prospects in the pipeline who are ready for outfield duty. The return for a talent like Duran, which has been displayed for two seasons, and is controllable places Craig Breslow firmly in Red Barber's catbird seat in trade negotiations.
Big Three
The names are now edged in Red Sox memories of the possible future to be — Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, and Kyle Teel. A shortstop, outfielder, and catcher. Now, they are in Worcester, facing the last hurdle to the majors.
Projecting prospects' futures, even in Triple-A, is daunting. Just look at Bobby Dalbec and Duran's few extra years to put it together. Will the Red Sox finally take one of the "Big Three" as a trade offering? Do they create a package like they did with Chris Sale? That opens up an avenue for a veteran who still has the dual attraction of talent and a few years of contract control.
The best option is viable, MLB-ready, or talent that is promising enough to pull the trade trigger. The Red Sox could do a high-level prospect position player for a high-level pitching prospect and still examine the options of dealing with those talents previously mentioned.
Mayer is the most vulnerable, with the question mark being his prone to injury history, which has surfaced again since his recent promotion to Worcester. Defensively, Mayer is a proven commodity, and offensively, his bat is now catching up to his glove. With the previously mentioned infield logjam, Mayer could be a prime target for moving.
Anthony is now the number one prospect in the farm system and has an incredible upside. What little I have seen reminds me of Anthony Rizzo from his farmhand days in the Boston system. Anthony is the bat that would make you forget Casas.
Defensively, Teel may be ready now, but the Red Sox are in no rush. Connor Wong has had an outstanding season, and Danny Jansen has provided solid games. However, Jansen is a soon-to-be free agent, and that opens the door for Teel. Teel, like Anthony, is a keeper.