Chris Sale will come back in the second half and be awesome
Yes, yes....fool us once and all of that. No one denies Chris Sale's talent and resume in the big leagues. You are completely forgiven if you don't have any optimism that his latest stint on the injured list is going to end any different than how the others have the last few years. There are a lot of miles on that arm of his and the amount of trouble he has had staying on the field speaks for itself.
However, all of that rest and rehab could do a lot of good for Sale at least in the near-term. While the last year of his contract in 2024 could end up being another disappointment, Boston getting a couple months of vintage Chris Sale would be a huge boon to their chances at a playoff spot in 2023. Our guess is that he comes back before the end of August and looks well-rested and healthy enough to put together at least one last run of dominance. No guarantees about next season, though.
The Red Sox will finish ahead of the Yankees, but will fall just short of the wild card
Finally, we come to where we think the Red Sox will finish this season. First, the Red Sox are going to finish ahead of the Yankees. The Red Sox are just a better team right now and while the Yankees could make a run when Aaron Judge returns, that is a Yankees squad that can't seem to do much of anything right at the moment. They will finish above .500 in all likelihood, but expect Boston to be comfortably ahead of them by year's end.
However, even if Boston adds a couple starters at the trade deadline, it won't be enough and that is more in recognition of the other teams in the running for playoff spots. Tampa seems like a sure bet to make the playoffs and to probably win the AL East although that is far less certain now given their recent play. Baltimore is a genuinely scary team who is likely to be aggressive at the trade deadline as are whoever is left looking for a wild card spot between the Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers. Passing the Blue Jays for the last playoff spot is Boston's best chance, but between some of the arms the Blue Jays have coming back and that young offensive core of theirs...making up the current 2.5 game deficit seems like it is asking a lot.