3 ways the Red Sox can defy the odds in 2024
We will now be a baseball Mister Roarke and travel to Red Sox Fantasy Island. My Fellowship of The Miserable membership will be temporarily suspended, and Mr. Negativity will take a hiatus.
The consensus for the 2024 edition of the Local Nine is depressing, as fundamental issues were left unattended. Even that harbinger of spring — Truck Day — has been met with disdain.
BSI has developed a cottage industry based on the machinations of management, of which I plead guilty to joining. It is a cauldron of negativity that management deserves after making rash statements of going "full throttle," but going in reverse instead.
Looking to grasp a glimmer of hope for rescuing the fledging season, is there a pathway to success or respectability? What has to fall into place for this team to make the playoffs and go deep into October?
What has to happen would be a Red Sox version of "Miracle On Ice" to accomplish success in the American League East. We will now saddle up for a possible alternate history for 2024 with the avoidance of projections such as Fangraphs.
3 ways the Red Sox can defy the odds in 2024
Red Sox starting rotation will rack up 65 wins
Can you win with very good pitching? Looking back on the 2013 staff, the rotation and bullpen were among the best in the league. The team still won 97 games and a World Series. Jon Lester (15-8, 3.75), Felix Doubront (11-6, 4.32), Jon Lackey (10-13, 3.52), Ryan Dempster (8-9, 4.57), and an injured Clay Buchholz (12-1, 1.74) were the rotation.
In 2023, the rotation went 48-56, which is what one would expect from a last-place team. This wretched total will be tightened up by a considerable margin in 2024. A combination of new pitching coach Andrew Bailey and players picking up their game a notch should do the trick.
Ever the optimist in this best-case scenario, we will go with Brayan Bello duplicating his first half (6-5, 3.04) for the entire season. That is a pathway to 15+ wins. Tack on newcomer Lucas Giolio's 2019 season (14-9, 3.41) and another potential 15 wins.
Nick Pivetta is the 2024 version of Ryan Dempster. Can Pivetta return to his league-best 33 starts of 2022? We're betting on it, plus double-digit wins. The remaining pieces have an upside that we're going all in on, especially Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock.
Before we toss away my rose-colored glasses for this part, we fully expect Whitlock to turn back the clock two seasons and Houck to tame three pitches and match Pivetta.
If Boston can sign a Jordan Montgomery, risk Trevor Bauer, or trade for a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm, our trip to the Fantasy Island pitching department will be complete. This rotation can easily match 2013 and 2018 if all falls in place magically.
Red Sox bullpen will be a strength
Bullpens are a fickle paramour with performance swings replacing mood swings. What is constructed one season to withstand the big, bad wolf will fall victim to a metrics retread the following season.
The reasonably solid bullpen of 2023 should be more so in 2024. The top end is in good hands with closer Kenley Jansen unless management is tempted for another salary dump. Chris Martin operates as a formidable setup man.
Sometimes, shopping in the discount aisle has rewards, and you get Cooper Criswell and Brennan Bernardino, precisely what Chaim Bloom and Craig Breslow are doing. The list is substantial, and at first blush, you dismiss a Justin Slaten. Most will become roster fodder, but a few will flourish from the spring training carnage.
The bullpen strength is dependent on a loser's competition for the rotation. A Houck or Whitlock can work the 'pen, spot start, or get coffee for manager Alex Cora. That would depend on the need and additional rotation additions.
With or without the aforementioned glasses, our confidence is high in the bullpen. This may consist of baseball naivety or excessive amounts of questionable substances. Still, we're solid with this bullpen, especially if the rotation is no longer comprised of four innings and done.
Red Sox will be among the top run producers in the American League
Hitting is never an issue Sox fans are particularly concerned with since Boston finds bats, but consistency is another topic. In 2023, the Red Sox were 11th in the AL in hitting but still produced 772 runs.
As we skip down the optimism path, avoiding unicorns and rainbows, we pick some significant muscle from Rafael Devers and Trevor Story. What would be a tasty addition is to sign Adam Duvall for a return. Duvall did just what was expected, and for just 92 games last year.
We're all in on Vaughn Grissom, a beast in Triple-A, but then again, so was Bobby Dalbec. It's nice to have a right-handed threat with Devers and fellow lefty Triston Casas (will he hit 35 homers?). Ah, we're thinking of Duvall again.
We have four mentions in the "expecting really big things" category. The first is Jarren Duran, who resurrected his career but is now mentioned in trade rumors. Second on our list is Masataka Yoshida, who is going to hit above .300 this season. Next is the bat that may help the Sox ignore Duvall and others -- Tyler O'Neill, who had a monster season in 2021 (34 home runs). Our hope of hopes is it will be repeated. Lastly is Wilyer Abreau, who impressed in a short stint.
Is the Red Sox farm system an illusion with disappointment etched into it? The system is stingy with producing pitching but not so with position players. Ceddanne Rafaela is unknown for 2024 with his defensive versatility, speed, and hitting ability. Can he put it all together like he did in Triple-A?
The offense will be more balanced and have the usual amount of versatility, and with Rafaela you have a potential wild card to smooth things over. Getting that additional power bat is key and Breslow will not let that slide.
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