3 Red Sox prospects who should not be traded and 3 who should

It is pretty clear that the Boston Red Sox find themselves in a bit of trouble as we head into the midpoint of the 2023 season. On the surface, a record hovering around .500 isn’t the end of the world and in most divisions in the American League, it would have you in very reasonable striking distance.

Unfortunately, that isn’t really the case in the AL East which has proven to be absolutely loaded this year. The Rays got off to their crazy start and while maintaining that pace was always unsustainable, they are not showing signs of fading too much, either. The Orioles are loaded with young talent that is already challenging for a playoff spot. The Yankees seem like they are vulnerable, but are still hanging around and are always dangerous. Even the Blue Jays are a pretty good team even with some underperformance so far this season.

That leaves Boston in the cellar looking up at a division that seems to be leaving them behind. Unlike most basement-dwelling teams, though, the Red Sox have some things going for them. The offense is still one of the better ones in the division and the bullpen has been quite good as well. It all comes down to whether or not they can get their rotation troubles sorted out quickly and severely enough to put together a run.

Which prospects should the Red Sox keep and which ones should they trade?

This is easier said than done because 1) Boston probably needs multiple arms and 2) they are going to have a lot of competition as the trade deadline approaches as a lot of teams could use starting pitching. Boston is going to have to pony up to get guys that can help them in 2023 (and that includes useful rentals) so they are going to have to do a serious accounting of which prospects need to stay and which ones the organization can part with.

Here is a look at some prospects the Red Sox need to hang on to as part of their future and some that they could part with come the trade deadline.

The Red Sox should keep Marcelo Mayer

In all of these trade discussions that are being had as we speak, it is an absolute certainty that other teams are trying to pry Marcelo Mayer away and with good reason. The combination of his pure hitting ability and strong defense at a premium position rightly has him as the best prospect in the Red Sox farm system and a top 5-10 prospect in all of baseball. 

This does raise an interesting question, though, because Boston has done pretty well to stockpile interesting bats in the minor leagues that can up the middle in the dirt and, well, you don’t need to keep all of them. However, Mayer is a really good defender that seems likely to stay at short and even if he eventually needs to shift over to second or third, the upside here is too great to give up willingly. No team should say NEVER to trading a prospect, but the return would have to be pretty significant to entertain giving up Mayer.

The Red Sox should trade Miguel Bleis

This is a tougher one because in order to get quality players in return, Boston is going to have to give up high quality players with upside to get them and Miguel Bleis certainly fits the bill. His numbers in low-A don’t show it, but Bleis has the potential to be a tantalizing combination of power and speed that earned him a $1.5 million signing bonus as an international free agent.

The biggest issue here is that he got hurt and is going to have to undergo shoulder surgery which is going to create a risk of selling low on him. He is expected to be good to go for 2024, but that doesn’t mean that teams won’t try to ding his value. As a result, a trade involving moving Bleis needs to be one to a team that wants a longer term investment (Bleis isn’t close to the big leagues) and who is willing to bet on the value of his gaudy tools. If Boston finds a team that is in love with him, he can be the centerpiece of a deal for a player that can help them. If a team tries to get him put in deal as a throw-in, it should be a hard pass.

The Red Sox should keep Ceddane Rafaela

Oh look, another up the middle position player. How many of these guys does Boston really need? Well, they need Ceddane Rafaela, but for slightly different reasons than some of these other guys. Rafaela is certainly not a physically imposing figure and his approach at the plate is too aggressive, but he has hit for average the last two seasons in full season ball, more power than you would think from a 5’9 guy, and he can steal bases and take extra bases with his plus speed.

However, the biggest selling point for keeping Rafaela around is his defense. This guy can play pretty much anywhere on the field except catcher and play it well. You don’t find guys that have this sort of defensive ability from guys very often and true utility belt plus defenders have a lot of value in the big leagues. Ones that have actual upside at the plate are basically impossible to find. His offensive game has some warts to be sure, but Rafaela is unique enough to keep around. 

The Red Sox should trade Blaze Jordan

This one is likely to get some Red Sox fans clutching their pearls, but again…you have to give up something to get something. Blaze Jordan can hit and hit for power and that isn’t just a scouting report from his draft year…he has hit every single year he has been in the minor leagues since he joined the organization as a third round pick in the 2020 draft. The power hasn’t quite shown up in games like Boston likely thought it would, but it is definitely in there.

The issue with Jordan long-term for the Red Sox is that he is pretty much just a bat. While he is listed as a third baseman, he isn’t a particularly strong defender over there and has already seen a lot of time over at first base in the minor leagues which puts even more pressure on his bat. Moreover, Boston doesn’t have a shortage of guys that can hit who also have some defensive ability and several of them are closer to the big leagues than Blaze is. Find a team that needs some offensive talent that they can wait a little while for and use Jordan to help get a deal done. He may end up being a fine big league hitter, but it isn’t likely he will be missed too much in the grand scheme of things.

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