3 Red Sox predictions we wish we'd have made before the season began
The Boston Red Sox have gotten off to a better start than even the most optimistic fan could've imagined. The team is 22-17 despite some brutal starting pitching and is right in the thick of a playoff race.
It's unfortunate that the Sox are a part of what might be the best division of all time, but they'd be the third Wild Card team if the season ended today despite being in fourth in the division.
Plenty has gone right, and plenty has gone wrong. We expected the bullpen to be better with the additions of Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin, but we also expected the rotation to be a bit better than it has been as well. There are several predictions we wish we would've made before the season began. Here are three of them.
1) We wish we predicted that the Boston Red Sox bullpen would go from one of the worst to one of the best
Last season the Red Sox had one of the worst bullpens in all of baseball. Their 4.59 ERA ranked 26th in the league ahead of just the Royals, Reds, Pirates, and Rockies. The Red Sox could've easily been in postseason contention had the bullpen not been as disastrous as it was.
Chaim Bloom correctly looked to fix that issue in free agency, but I wasn't in love with what he did. I liked the Chris Martin deal a lot but was not a fan of the Kenley Jansen addition. Obviously, Kenley is a legendary closer, but he appeared to be on the downswing. His velocity was down, and his effectiveness was down as well.
The timing isn't great considering Jansen just blew a save, but prior to his recent outing against the Cardinals, the right-hander had allowed just one run in 11.2 innings of work, walking three and striking out 17. Jansen isn't the only one performing.
Chris Martin has a 1.64 ERA. John Schreiber remains reliable. Even Josh Winckowski has had a great year out of the bullpen. The 'pen still has it's rough spots (Ryan Brasier), but it's night and day compared to last season.
The Sox have a 3.69 bullpen ERA which is good for 11th in the league. This is despite the unit having to throw the sixth most innings since Boston gets mostly nothing out of their starting pitching. I wish I knew the bullpen would keep this team afloat.
2) We wish we predicted the Red Sox lineup would be elite even with Rafael Devers having a down year
With Xander Bogaerts gone, this is Rafael Devers' team. That was solidified when he signed his mega-extension before the season began. Devers is the centerpiece of this lineup, or at least he's expected to be.
So far this season, the star third baseman has gotten off to a bit of a slow start. He's slashing .248/.301/.537 with 11 home runs and 35 RBI. The power is there, and he actually leads the league with those 11 longballs. Just the rest of his game feels off right now.
His .838 OPS isn't bad, but it's not what we expect from Devers. It's the lowest mark he's had since the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, and the lowest mark he's had in a full season since 2018. Will things improve? Probably. When he gets going, look out.
Even with Devers not playing at his best right now, the Red Sox are third in runs scored and are third in OPS. The team is mashing even with their best player underperforming.
Players like Alex Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida are carrying the load, but Boston has gotten some contributions from players we didn't expect much from. Adam Duvall was raking before going on the IL. Guys like Enmanuel Valdez and Jaren Duran have performed exponentially well since being called up.
The bullpen being good is the biggest difference from last season, but Boston was ninth in runs scored last season. The offense has been better despite losing Bogaerts and with Devers not at his best. Who would've thought?
3) We wish we predicted the Boston Red Sox rotation would be this bad
Going into the season we knew the Boston Red Sox would not have the best rotation in baseball. They were relying on Chris Sale to not only stay healthy but also be an ace. They were relying on a guy like Corey Kluber to not only stay healthy but be reliable. They were relying on youngsters like Bryan Bello, Tanner Houck, and Garrett Whitlock to take leaps. None of that has happened.
While he's been better lately, Sale looks like a shell of himself. The left-hander has a 6.37 ERA over his first seven starts. At least he's healthy. Corey Kluber also looks like a shell of himself, as he has a 6.29 ERA over his first seven starts. After a solid year in Tampa Bay last season, Kluber has gone six innings just once for Boston. He's given up at least one home run in every start, and he's seen a massive spike in his walks from 1.2 BB/9 to 3.1 BB/9. Boston needs more from both of these starters.
Nick Pivetta has an ERA over 6.00 and seems to think he's untouchable in the rotation. Bryan Bello didn't begin the season in the rotation but he has an ERA over 5.00 despite pitching better lately. Houck and Whitlock have ERA's of 5.26 and 6.19 respectively. It just isn't working. At least James Paxton is finally healthy.
Red Sox starters rank 28th with a 5.94 ERA through the first 39 games of the season. That's over a full run worse than the 4.49 ERA they had last season. I thought it'd be improved with Sale back and Kluber being added, but it's substantially worse. For Boston to be competitive this season they'll have to make at least one or two trades to improve in this area.
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