3 free agent starting pitchers the Red Sox need to avoid at all costs
The Red Sox need starting pitching. They don't need these guys, though.
By all accounts, the Boston Red Sox need starting pitching and badly. James Paxton is about to hit the free agent market and the rotation is currently being anchored by the promising, but largely unproven, Brayan Bello and the ghost of Chris Sale. Incoming front office head Craig Breslow has his work cut out for him to get this group into shape.
Unfortunately, this year's free agent class isn't exactly loaded with quality starting pitchers. Boston is widely expected to at least try to sign Shohei Ohtani, but he isn't going to be pitching next year in all likelihood even if they do pull that off. That least Boston's new front office with a problem still in need of solving. Complicating matters, there are some prominent names on the market that they need to stay away from.
Here are 3 free agent starting pitchers the Red Sox need to avoid at all costs
These players are not guys who are incapable of being good. In fact, all of them are immensely talented. However, they all also come with the kinds of risk that Boston shouldn't be taking on right now. Whether it is injury concerns or simple projected cost vs. production, Boston needs to bring guys in that don't have a strong likelihood of blowing up in their faces. Pitchers are already volatile enough as it is, so Boston needs to tread carefully when evaluating their free agent options.
Let's take a look at some of the free agent starters that Boston needs to avoid.
Lucas Giolito
Lucas Giolito was set to be one of the prizes of the 2023 trade deadline. He was a consistent performer on the mound with the White Sox for several seasons including multiple decent Cy Young voting finishes. While his 2023 season with Chicago wasn't great, he was still missing bats and that whole situation with the White Sox was a dumpster fire. It wasn't crazy to think that he just needed a change of scenery.
Giolito certainly got that change of scenery as he was traded to the Angels at the deadline as LA was trying to go for it one last time with Shohei Ohtani in the fold. Unfortunately, the Angels cratered and Giolito was terrible in his six starts with the Angels. LA waived the white flag pretty quick and Giolito was claimed by the Guardians where he was equally bad on the mound in six starts there.
Its hard to say what caused Giolito's drop-off. It is possible all the moving around messed him up and that would be understandable. However, a guy that is probably looking to get paid coming off a season where he posted an ERA approaching 5 and who could not keep the ball in the ballpark is an incredibly risky bet to make.
It is possible that the Red Sox could see adjustments Giolito could make to get back to being the guy he once was. However, for a new front office that needs to hit on these early moves to fix the rotation, they need to look elsewhere other than Giolito.
Aaron Nola
It wasn't that long ago that Aaron Nola was considered to be one of the absolute best pitchers in all of baseball. The guy eats innings, strikes out batters at a high clip, throws a ton of strikes, and is nails in the postseason. On paper, he should be a guy that every team would want on their roster.
However, there are a few problems with targeting him for the Red Sox's rotation. First, he is showing signs of decline. In two of his past three seasons, he has posted mid-4 ERAs and has shown some intermittent issues with the long ball. At 30 years old and looking for his final big payday, there is going to be a lot of crossing of fingers in hoping he will bounce back and age well.
The other problem is the Phillies. Nola would greatly prefer to stay in Philadelphia and the Phillies would love to have him back with both sides agreeing to have discussions after the 2023 season. Getting in a bidding war with Dave Dombrowski is not a wise decision in most circumstances and given that most observers think that Nola is going to require at least six years at a decently high AAV for his next contract, that is a lot of money to tie up in a guy that has some warts to his game.
If Nola hits free agency, the Phillies and other teams are going to be in hard on him and he is just not worth pushing all in on with better options like Sonny Gray and Jordan Montgomery on the market.
Jack Flaherty
Finally, we come to Jack Flaherty who was an ace in the making back in 2019. Flaherty finished in the top 5 in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2018 and would have gotten more love in the 2019 NL Cy Young vote after posting a 2.75 ERA in almost 200 innings if Jacob deGrom had gone wild that year.
Unfortunately, things started to go sideways after that. Flaherty struggled during the COVID-shortened 2020 season and in 2021, the injury bug started to bite him. Oblique and shoulder issues limited him to just 15 starts in 2021 and shoulder issues plagued him in 2022 as well. While he played the entirety of the 2023 season, he is still clearly not right at the moment as he put up a 4.99 ERA in 29 appearances with the Cardinals and Orioles in 2023.
If Flaherty was willing to take a cheap one year deal and Boston thought there were some mechanical adjustments that would allow him to regain the stuff he showed early in his career, that would be fine. However, it seems more likely that he has some physical things going on that are going to limit him going forward and there is going to be some team that is willing to give him the multi-year deal that his agency, CAA, is going to fight for.
Boston should let someone else pay him and focus on other targets that are more likely to help them in the short-term.
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