Craig Breslow outlined a list of needs for the Boston Red Sox this offseason and a few of those needs went unaddressed. He strengthened the rotation significantly, but Alex Bregman departed, taking his elite defense with him. The offense also still lacks pop in a division chock-full of sluggers.
After trading Rafael Devers in mid-June, Boston's home run power decreased dramatically. It ranked 27th in home runs in the second half of the season and Breslow said that his team's lack of power was one of the things that contributed to its early playoff elimination against the New York Yankees, a team of big bats.
Still, he didn't go all-in to bring Bregman back, made a pitiful and unserious offer to Pete Alonso and didn't even approach Kyle Schwarber or Eugenio Suárez. Now, according to projections from Twitter user Thomas Nestico, Boston is expected to rank 22nd in the league in home runs with 179.
Nestico calculated projected home run totals for each team in the league by taking the average from five FanGraphs projection models. One of which is ZiPS, which rather famously projected that no Red Sox player would hit more than 20 home runs in 2026.
Red Sox projected to finish 22nd in MLB in home runs after missing out on multiple slugging free agents
2026 Projected Team Home Runs — Composite Projections pic.twitter.com/h2MvF4hEnh
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) February 18, 2026
Only two Red Sox hit more than 20 homers last season — Trevor Story led the squad with 25 and Wilyer Abreu finished the season with 22. Abreu is expected to get more playing time this season as Boston gives him more opportunities against lefty pitchers, so his homer total could realistically increase.
Willson Contreras will add some pop to the lineup since he hit 20 homers in 135 games last season. Roman Anthony could find a home run swing with more time in the majors, since he played just 71 games last season.
But banking on Contreras, Anthony and Story for a steady supply of homers is dangerous. Contreras can slug but it's not among the skills he's known for. He's posted a high of 24 homers in a single season in 2019. Anthony is still just 21-years-old, still finding his way in MLB, and hitting homers has never been a major part of his game. Story has been frequently injured throughout his tenure with the Red Sox, and if he goes down, they'll lose a good amount of the righty extra-base power built into their lineup.
A bat like Alonso or Schwarber would be welcome in Boston's lineup. As skilled as many of the Red Sox's hitters are, it's much harder to string together a series of hits for a run or two than it is for a home run hitter to come to the plate and score multiple runs with one swing of the bat.
Maybe the Red Sox's run prevention strategy will work for them in 2026 — small ball could be the way forward. If it doesn't, a real slugger should be at the top of their offseason wish list for 2027.