Prospect rankings can often differ heavily based on who you ask. You could see a drastically diverse array of opinions on the same prospect just by scrolling through multiple publications for an hour.
It’s important to remember that no ranking is perfect. They’re all opinions, and not facts. Sometimes they get something egregiously wrong. However, sometimes, they’re spot on. For Keith Law, it’s hard to be much more right than he’s been about Boston Red Sox prospect Franklin Arias.
Arias has been on top-100 lists since the tail end of the 2024 season, but there seemed to be a pretty hard cap on his ceiling due to his limited power. That is, a hard cap to everyone except Law.
Law had Arias as his 12th-ranked prospect entering the season, when most seemed to have him hovering around 50. It’s nearly impossible to find Arias any worse than 15 at this point, but Law’s ranking of third for The Athletic is the peak for the Boston shortstop (subscription required).
Red Sox prospect Franklin Arias is No. 3 in baseball, according to Keith Law
So what has caused such a massive shift in public opinion on Arias? The answer is simple. Power. Arias has always had the other tools. He’s had fantastic bat-to-ball skills. His defense was great, featuring a good glove, a strong, accurate arm, and skilled footwork. While he wasn’t a burner, his speed/athleticism was enough.
There was very little power in his bat until this year. In 2025, Arias hit eight home runs in 479 ABs between Single-A, High-A, and Double-A. In 2026, he’s hit 12 home runs in 148 ABs in Double-A. That’s a drastic difference. He’s not just hitting home runs, either. The right-handed hitter is slashing .345/.414/.655 with eight doubles, one triple, and those 12 home runs. He’s driven in 31 runs, scored 29 more, and stolen four bases. Arias has a low 12.4% strikeout rate and a decent enough 8.9% walk rate.
A promotion for Arias is seemingly coming any day now. The 20-year-old is now at 217 plate appearances in Double-A. With the combination of performance and time accumulated at the level, it feels inevitable.
As we enter June, it’s looking like the power is legitimate for Arias. He added weight/muscle this offseason, and that has clearly made a difference. Did Law always see this power potential in him? Or did he just love the rest of his game that much? Whatever the case, Arias has done his best to make Law look like a baseball genius. I’m sure the Red Sox are very happy about that.
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