The Boston Red Sox in July and August turned their ugly start to the season into a 98.3 percent chance to make the playoffs (per FanGraphs). But late in August and into September, Boston's rotation, which has been the biggest key to its success this year, is showing signs of fatigue.
Sonny Gray needed his September 1 start delayed, Ranger Suarez has a 5.01 ERA in his last seven outings and rookies Payton Tolle and Jake Bennett have 131 and 99.2 innings, respectively, on their arms. If the current trends continue, the Red Sox could have a hard time determining their playoff rotation.
Legendary Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon thinks he has it figured out, however. During his September 3 appearance on the "Foul Territory" podcast, Papelbon said Bennett, Gray and Tolle (not necessarily in that order) would be his ideal three-man staff.
"If the playoffs are tomorrow and I'm the manager, Ranger Suarez is not pitching for me. I hate to say it, but he's not pitching for me," Papelbon said.
Jonathan Papelbon and Red Sox fans have forgotten that Ranger Suarez is a postseason demon
But Papelbon has seemingly forgotten one thing about Suarez: he's a hitter's worst nightmare in the postseason. Over seven playoff series across four years, he's posted a 1.48 ERA and 1.055 WHIP in 42.2 frames.
If the playoffs started tomorrow, @TheRealJPap58 wouldn't include Ranger Suárez in the starting rotation.
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) September 3, 2026
"I'd go Bennett, Gray, then Tolle." pic.twitter.com/9UtJArtQEv
Papelbon pointed to Suarez's recent struggles as the reason he shouldn't be included in the postseason rotation, but the pattern the lefty has fallen into this season is a recurring one, and Philadelphia Phillies fans know it well. Like many starters, Suarez shows signs of exhaustion at the end of every season — in the last three Septembers, he's posted a 5.20 ERA (2023), 6.04 ERA (2024) and a 4.10 ERA (2025), each over five starts. But he always bounces back when it counts.
It's understandable to be hesitant of trusting Suarez with a postseason start given some of his latest outings, but he shouldn't be discounted fully. He's shown year after year that he can abandon his late-season troubles to be locked in for big moments and the Red Sox should believe he can do it again.
Quality pitching has been the most important part of Boston's game all year, and if the pattern holds up, Suarez could be its best pitcher in the postseason. The Sox have a tough Wild Card matchup ahead of them, most likely against the New York Yankees or Tampa Bay Rays, and they'll need the best rotation they can get to beat either of them. Given his playoff history, Suarez is worthy of consideration for a starting role.
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