The New York Yankees (and ugly offense) brought an early end to the Boston Red Sox's playoff run and the offseason is now upon them. While they have their sights set on free agent and trade targets, the Red Sox must also negotiate arbitration salaries with their eligible players.
MLB Trade Rumors' (MLBTR) arbitration salary predictions are usually quite accurate, but their projected payday for Jarren Duran has raised some eyebrows. The outfielder is expected to take home Boston's biggest raise and a salary of $11.1 million — a huge ask after his severe offensive regression this season after he already regressed from his 2024 output.
The Red Sox need to add more right-handed bats and power to their lineup, and following Duran's awful 2026 season, the left field spot seems like a great place to do it. Unfortunately, Duran's down season dragged his trade value down even more and an estimated $11.1 million salary won't have any teams banging down the door of Fenway Park to take him on.
MLBTR's estimates are just that, but more senior arbitration-eligible players demand higher salaries regardless of their output. Duran signed a $7.7 million contract before the 2026 season. His play doesn't warrant an over $3 million raise but if he gets one, as MLBTR predicts, it'll make him even harder to trade than his down year already has.
Jarren Duran's projected arbitration salary will make it even harder for Red Sox to trade him this offseason
Duran batted .207/.266/.361 in 151 games. He managed 20 homers, four more than his total from last year, and 21 stolen bases, but his doubles total plummeted from 41 to 15 year over year. Duran posted a 69 wRC+ all season, the second-lowest in the league ahead of only the Colorado Rockies' Ezequiel Tovar, and first percentile batting run value.
That kind of regression before his age-30 season coupled with a salary in the double-digit millions doesn't make for easy trade bait. The Red Sox will have to accept an underwhelming return or maybe package Duran in with someone else to free up that money.
MLBTR could be off with its projection. Last year, it estimated Duran would get an $8 million contract, but he settled slightly lower. If it's off base this year, Red Sox fans had better hope it's by a more significant margin. Duran could even be at risk of being non-tendered if Boston is determined to offload his contract, but that would mean the team gets nothing back in return for his departure.
The Red Sox have many decisions to make about Duran's future with the team and setting a lower salary in arbitration could be key to maximizing whatever trade value he still has. They could also try and trade him before the arbitration deadline to pass that stress off to a new team, but the estimate is still a daunting number.
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