The top of the Boston Red Sox's rotation — Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito — has been surprisingly efficient in the last two months. Bello and Giolito have emerged as clear candidates for the No. 2 title, just as Boston had hoped.
There's a good chance the Red Sox could have the same three starters near the top next year. Crochet and Bello are signed to long-term contracts, and Giolito has a vesting option in his that could keep him in Boston through 2026.
If the righty pitches fewer than 140 innings this season, the Red Sox keep control over him into next year. At the beginning of the season, it didn't seem like Giolito would appraoch the 140 frames mark — he didn't make his Red Sox debut until April 30, and a few of his early outings were cut short due to blowups. Giolito let up six runs in 3.2 innings on May 6, and seven runs in just 1.2 frames on June 4. He's also had a fair few four-inning affairs sprinkled in between.
Giolito has found his way since June, and he's looking more like the 2019-21 versions of himself that earned Cy Young Award votes. He's posted a 3.63 ERA on the season, and a 2.84 ERA over his three starts in August.
Here's how Lucas Giolito's vesting option affects the 2026 Red Sox
Giolito has logged 106.2 innings with about six weeks of the season remaining. If he doesn't reach 140 innings, the Red Sox will have him under team control for $14 million in 2026. The veteran made $18 million in 2024, while he recovered from the internal brace procedure and $19 million this year. Excluding contract options, the Red Sox's payroll next season will be $158.4 million and the luxury tax threshold will be $244 million for 2026. Giolito's potential $14 million salary would only inch them toward the luxury tax, and Boston could still go all-in in free agency (which it could do regardless, since Fenway Sports Group has plenty of money).
Based on their trade deadline activity, the Red Sox's main focus this offseason could be trading for Minnesota Twins All-Star Joe Ryan. They have more than enough top prospect and big league capital to do so, and they could put their money toward re-signing Alex Bregman or Giolito if he doesn't reach 140 innings pitched this year.
After his career resurgence, Giolito could be in line for a multi-year contract if he hits free agency. Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has said that the team has no plans to limit Giolito's innings so he doesn't cross the 140 threshold, which is a wise choice during a playoff push, especially when he's been so solid lately. The $14 million on his vesting option would be quite a savings compared to the top-tier free agents on the 2025-26 offseason market, but winning should be Boston's highest priority.