The Boston Red Sox have made several moves to improve the team in 2025, mostly concentrated to the pitching staff.
Beyond those moves, however, the Red Sox have another (somewhat) new face that will impact the roster this season. Starting pitcher Lucas Giolito is set to make his Red Sox debut after missing all of last season due to elbow surgery. Let’s take a look at what the Red Sox can reasonably expect from the righty as he slots into the third or fourth spot in their rotation.
Giolito was one of the more consistent pitchers for the White Sox in the previous three seasons before being traded to the Angels and later grabbed off waivers by the Guardians. Giolito averaged a 4.43 ERA over 31 starts per season between 2021 and '23, logged over 200 strikeouts in two of those three seasons, and averaged 10 strikeouts per nine innings.
He also posted a combined 41 quality starts in those three seasons and an average WHIP of 1.28. These numbers don't even include the 2019 season, during which Giolito won a career-high 14 games in 29 starts with a career-high 5.6 WAR and an ERA of 3.41. Our focus will remain on his three most recent seasons.
What can Red Sox Nation expect from Lucas Giolito in 2025?
Comparing Giolito’s average numbers to the 2024 Red Sox staff is revealing, mostly in a good way. Giolito would rank first among 2024 Red Sox starters in strikeouts and second to the departed Nick Pivetta in K/9. Giolito’s average innings pitched of 174.5 would place third on the Sox last season and his high of 184.1 innings pitched in 2023 would top the squad.
His average WHIP of 1.28 from his last three campaigns would be fourth on last year’s staff. Giolito’s average of nearly 14 quality starts per year over the past three years would be third-best on the 2024 starting staff. His 15 quality starts in both 2021 and 2023 would be second on the team. Finally, Giolito’s two best ERAs, in 2019 and 2021, would rank just behind Tanner Houck’s club-leading ERA of 3.19 last year.
The Red Sox smartly grabbed Garrett Crochet, and he will take the role of the team’s ace heading into 2025. They return Houck, fresh off an All-Star campaign, and they added former All-Star Walker Buehler from the Dodgers, now nearly two years removed from Tommy John surgery. Brayan Bello also returns, hoping to continue to make strides as a potential top-tier starter with, perhaps, the second-best stuff on the staff behind Crochet.
Under the radar, however, could be the potential of Giolito. He was remarkably consistent between 2021 and '23 as a starter who produced quality starts nearly half the time and racked up nearly 200 strikeouts while limiting walks. He will not need to be this team’s ace, which he might have been asked to be in 2023 before getting hurt. Giolito will have the opportunity to ply his craft in the middle of the Sox rotation with lower expectations than before. Double-digit wins, 15 quality starts, and over 200 strikeouts are reasonable expectations of the veteran, who will plug in nicely around Crochet, Buehler, Houck and Bello.