Lucas Giolito was an inspiring smoke-and-mirrors success story with the Boston Red Sox last year, overcoming declining metrics in all areas to post a 3.41 ERA and 2.0 fWAR over 145 innings. It was his best campaign since his prime with the Chicago White Sox, made all the more impressive by the fact that he missed the entire 2024 season following an internal brace surgery on his elbow.
Nevertheless, when push came to shove over the offseason, the Red Sox saw through his surface results. They opted to rebuild their rotation with star power, letting the veteran right-hander seek out a new home in free agency.
Though it took a while, Giolito eventually latched on with the pitching-needy Padres. He did his best in limited action (5.16 ERA, 6.07 FIP) to try and help stabilize a depleted rotation, but now he's dealing another injury of his own. Problematically, it's inflammation in the same elbow that required a procedure in 2024.
In a rare bit of vindication for this front office, it's clear that they were right to pass on a reunion with Giolito.
Lucas Giolito injury opens another avenue for Red Sox trade deadline plans
The Padres never had any intention of turning Giolito into their savior — their hopes for that lie in the injured duo of Joe Musgrove and old friend Nick Pivetta — though his absence will put them in an uncomfortable position yet again when it comes to depth and quality.
Right now, the Friars only have two legitimate, trustworthy starting pitchers: Michael King and Randy Vásquez. That means they have upward of three slots to fill in their starting five at the trade deadline, and you can be sure that A.J. Preller will be extra aggressive in his pursuit of such arms in order to augment his rapidly aging roster.
Sonny Gray probably just became one of Preller's favorite trade deadline targets. We know the Red Sox will be shopping him given his rental status and tremendous success this year (2.95 ERA in 76.1 innings), and it'd be in Craig Breslow's best interest to try and incite a bidding war for one of his top trade chips.
Getting the always-desperate Padres involved in that process would be ideal. Preller already proved his willingness to splurge on the guys he wants when he offered Dylan Cease and Ethan Salas for Jarren Duran last year (which the Red Sox foolishly turned down), and he'd certainly make one of the more enticing offers for Gray.
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